There was a 68% chance as of Tuesday that there would be no dissenters during the following day’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision, as new Chair Kevin Warsh conducts his first presser at the helm. And if there were formal disagreement amongst the committee were to occur, participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believed that there was a greater likelihood of a smaller number of dissenters than a larger number with the odds declining as the threshold increases from 1 to 2 to 3. There’s was close to a 100% probability that the US central bank will hold its benchmark steady, although the curve pointed to a hike being the most likely outcome at year-end relative to pausing or cutting.
Another Strong Retail Sales Print Expected
Participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Tuesday expected another strong retail sales publication to be released following last month’s 0.5% print. Consumer spending has been resilient in the face of persistent inflation accompanied by rising interest rates. Despite those headwinds, investors anticipated on Tuesday that the sales buoyancy will continue. Indeed, the odds of exceeding April’s figure of 0.5% were 61% on Tuesday, while there was a 13% likelihood of a number north of 1% and a 7% chance of a reading south of it. This indicator does carry an elevated deviation rate, meaning that it has a greater potential than normal of coming in significantly off from the consensus range, or in other words, it offers a loftier probability of a substantial surprise. Emblematic of the historical variability, the 57 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll stood at a median of 0.5% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum projections of -0.1% and 0.9%.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 16, 2026.
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