IBKR Predictive Market Participants and Industrial Production: May 14, 2026

On Thursday, the subsequent days US industrial production release was expected to reflect an annualized increase of 1%, but the “Yes” IBKR predictive contract at that threshold was priced at $0.32. In my opinion, there was a better chance of a beat than a miss considering that March’s figure was particularly weak against the backdrop of a manufacturing sector that has been strengthening in other surveys. On Thursday, I anticipated that April’s print would depict a robust improvement from the prior period’s sluggish performance and believed the “Yes” was fairly valued at $0.60, offering Interactive Brokers prediction market participants a potential opportunity to earn $1.00 back on a result as low as 1.1%. Still, it’s important to note this indicator’s historic volatility as illustrated by the 47 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll ranging from 0.2% to as high as 1.3%.

Forecast contract - US Industrial Production, chance for yes Line chart,

past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 14, 2026.

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