Working for the Weekend

(Today’s theme music: Loverboy, with a cowbell intro that I’d forgotten)

Another day, another rally.  The fact that today’s is occurring ahead of a three-day weekend in the US tells us quite a bit about traders’ attitudes towards risk.  In a more risk-averse environment, we might expect traders to pare risk and square positions amid the backdrop of a major global crisis.  Instead, they are quite willing to add to long positions, implying that they are unwilling to risk missing a peace-dividend rally. 

This fits neatly with the “ratchet effect” that we wrote about yesterday, where stocks have shown a consistent tendency to rally on even the slightest prospect for a deal to end the hostilities, and more importantly the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz.  Early this morning, the Secretary of State said there was “slight progress” during talks with Iran, and that is clearly enough impetus for stocks to take another leg higher.

Never mind of course that neither oil nor bonds are participating in the enthusiasm today.  Brent and WTI futures are about 1% higher this morning; not dramatic by any means, but not reflecting a quick reopening of the Strait.  Bond yields have also edged higher, at least at the front end of the curve.  We have 2-year notes trading 4 basis points higher, but 10-year yields have only risen slightly, and 30-year yields are about 1 bp lower. 

The flattening is likely linked to comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who advocated that the Fed should drop the “easing bias” from its policy statement.  While he hasn’t yet advocated for a hike, he noted that “inflation is not headed in the right direction.”   This would have him joining the three FOMC members who dissented at the last meeting because they too wanted to remove the easing bias from the statement.  (The fourth dissenter, Stephen Miran, advocated lower rates, but he will be replaced on the FOMC today when Kevin Warsh is sworn in.) 

Waller’s comments are notable for two reasons.  First, it adds to the chorus of FOMC members who are opposed to immediate rate hikes.  A greater focus on fighting inflation would raise the likelihood of future hikes, pushing up short-term rates while potentially lowering long-term rates by lowering inflationary expectations.  Second, bear in mind that Waller had been among the more dovish members of the FOMC, advocating for lower rates during the period when the President was actively considering candidates for Jerome Powell’s successor.  While I never criticize anyone for validly modifying their views in the face of new data, one can’t be faulted for wondering whether his prior views were politically tinged.

Speaking of inflation expectations, the latest University of Michigan survey was less than helpful.  Sentiment plunged once again, to yet another record low of 44.8, down from the prior 48.2.  Current Conditions and Expectations also dropped sharply to 45.8 and 44.1 from 47.8 and 48.5, respectively.  Meanwhile, 1-Year Inflation Expectations rose to 4.8% from 4.5% and the 5-10-Year counterpart rose to 3.9% from 3.4%.  That helps explain the gloomy outlook offered by Walmart (WMT) yesterday, which took those shares down by about 7%.

Potentially higher rates, rising inflation concerns, and sharply lower consumer sentiment are hardly reasons for an ebullient market.  Yet if we can pin hopes for peace alongside continued enthusiasm about AI spending that once again pushes semiconductor stocks upward, then Mr. Market can once again scale that steep wall of worry – at least ahead of a long weekend.