Turbulent developments in Davos involving tariff threats against certain European countries sent the odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US in some capacity up to a record of 61%. But then, a framework set by President Trump and NATO Chief Mark Rutte, whose details remain fluid and uncertain, sparked volatility in this contract on Thursday, as investors grappled with the sovereignty implications of a greater American presence in the self-governed Danish territory. A common question is whether the White House will be satisfied controlling parts of the world’s largest island without it formally belonging to Washington. The probability sank to 44% following the spike.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Japan CPI “Yes” Is Undervalued
Japan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) “Yes” contract for the benchmark to produce unchanged result 113.2 was priced at $0.46 on Wednesday.
Bank of Japan Expected to Keep Rates Steady
Participants on Wednesday were nearly 100% sure that the Bank of Japan will not change its interest rate at its Thursday meeting.
UMich 56 “No” Is Undervalued
The University of Michigan’s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment revisions have been historically modest, and an upgrade of 2.1 has rarely occurred. Indeed, a final reading of 56 on Thursday was extremely unlikely as of Wednesday. The “No” contract with a threshold of 56 was priced at $0.74 on the day before the print’s release.
Singaporean CPI “Yes” Is Undervalued
On Wednesday, the Singapore CPI was expected to come in at 1.2%, while the range of the 17 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll sport a minimum of 0.9% and a maximum of 1.3%. On Wednesday, the “Yes” contract for a threshold of 1% was priced at $0.70.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 22, 2026. Contract time until market close is also as of Jan. 22, 2026.
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