Throughout last week, investors anticipated that US pain at the pump as depicted by this coming Tuesday’s report would ease for the fourth consecutive week as optimism about potential progress in the Middle East had quelled fuel costs. Indeed, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Friday were confident that the print would have a per gallon price between $4.16 and $4.18 per gallon with the “Yes” contract at $4.15 and the “No” contract at $4.20 carrying probabilities of 99% and 72%. But some unexpected volatility either under or over is possible since the above contracts point to a narrow realm of potential outcomes, and to take advantage of a massive plunge or a more tempered decrease from the previously released figures of $4.305, $4.475, $4.49 and $4.50 of the past four weeks, buying the “No” at $4.15 and the “Yes” at $4.20 offers an undervalued combination trade, in my opinion. Its combined price is $0.36. This transaction would deliver $1.00 back to investors on a statistic at $4.15 or below, as well as a figure above $4.20. It loses, however, on a print ranging from $4.151 to $4.20.
Source for images: ForecastEx – Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 5, 2026.
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