Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday narrowly expected the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires the following day. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. On Monday, the “Yes” at that threshold for the Tuesday publication was priced at $0.47, signaling a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors projected the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the “Yeses” at $4.45 and $4.55 were going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Canada Housing to Remain Weak
The ongoing slump in the Canadian real estate sector is expected to continue, as the nation’s New Housing Price Index has only reflected one increase in the past 13 months, in February. Forecasters on Monday were downbeat about the subsequent day’s print for April, with the IBKR predictive market pricing just a 4% chance of a number above 0, even though 0 is the median estimate for the upcoming publication. Meanwhile, a beat at 0.1% or over would have returned $1.00 back on a $0.04 investment if it were to come in positive, and that trade on Monday looked like an undervalued, in my opinion. It was simply too cheap to be that close to consensus. Deeper in the minuses, furthermore, participants saw 49% and 86% odds of statistics north of -0.2% or -0.4%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 18, 2026.
Learn more about ForecastEx here
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account