Forecasters on Wednesday anticipated that the subsequent day’s initial unemployment claims print would show total filings of between 211k and 220k for the third consecutive week as participants had price a 67% probability of a number north of 210k and a 64% likelihood of a result that doesn’t exceed 220k. Thresholds below and above carried subdued probabilities of just a 15% chance of a statistic at or beneath 200k as well as 10% odds of a figure ahead of 230k. The expectations signaled that investors believed that labor conditions are healthy, as layoffs are projected to remain low.
Activity To Remain Healthy Too
Similarly, forecasters anticipated that the Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index would exceed 2.4% for the fifth consecutive week when released on Thursday, as there was a 58% chance that the result would exceed that level. Meanwhile, three of the last four weeks had featured numbers ahead of 2.6%, and had investors priced that scenario at 35%, underscoring bullish sentiments about the economy even as the risk of a hawkish central bank and the Iran war pose challenges to the cycle. Indeed, rate cut optimism has declined substantially year to date as WTI crude oil jumped north of $119 this week, its loftiest cost since 2022.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 11, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of March 11, 2026.
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