There was strong anticipation on Tuesday that global inflation rates peaked in May, when the impact of the crude oil spike driven from the US-Iran war lifted annualized measures significantly around the world. Indeed, the following day’s release of the eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to reflect just that, as last month’s figure of 3.2% was expected to retreat to 3% for June. Indeed, a Reuters poll of 42 forecasters carried a median of 3%, amidst minimum and maximum entries of 2.8% and 3.2% as of Tuesday. The Interactive Brokers prediction market foresaw a steeper drop, meanwhile, as the “Yeses” at 2.6%, 3% and 3.4% were priced at $0.90, $0.24 and $0.07, signaling a central projection of 2.9%. As of Tuesday, I believed the undervalued trade was a “Yes/No” combination at 2.6% and 3.4%, because the path to a number that low, or that high, was extremely narrow.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 30, 2026.
Learn more about ForecastEx here
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
New to Prediction Markets?
Open a Prediction Markets AccountDisclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account