ECB Was Expected to Hike for Second Time in 2026 With a 98% Degree of Certainty: Sept. 9, 2026

On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets participants believed that the following day would feature the European Central Bank (ECB) lifting its key interest rate. It would be the second increase of 2026 and a response to above-target inflation. Indeed, cost forces accelerated to 3.3% in August, their fastest pace in three years. The re-escalation in Middle East hostilities has meaningfully raised energy prices, and since the continent imports its oil and natural gas, it’s especially vulnerable to an uptick in fuel charges. For this reason, the 2.4% “Yes” contract was going for $0.98 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets on Wednesday, as the consensus firmly believed in a 25-basis point (bp) hike that will land the benchmark yield at 2.65%. But the chance of an outsized 50-bp increase on Wednesday wasn’t in the cards, as the 2.65% “Yes” was priced at just $0.02.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

August CPI Prelim Signals 125.85

August’s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany, released on the first of the month, came in at 125.85 and can be used to guide trades in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. The “Yes” at 125.5 and the “No” at 126 for the Thursday revision was priced at $0.96 and $0.91 on Wednesday,

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Existing US Home Sales Expected at 3.98 Million

Existing home sales are expected to have declined to 3.98 million in August as the recent surge in oil prices has driven up mortgage rates and hampered affordability in the residential real estate sector. Such a result would mark the third month in 2026 of a number beneath a 4-handle. Against this backdrop, the “No” at the 4 million threshold in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Wednesday was priced at $0.52. Meanwhile, the Reuters poll consisting of 41 forecasters carried minimum and maximum projections of 3.9 million and 4.08 million, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 9, 2026. 

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