Canada Unemployment Was Expected to Be Around 6.6%: March 12, 2026

On Thursday, IBKR ForecastTrader participants anticipated that Canada’s unemployment rate, scheduled for release on the subsequent day, would be around 6.6%. Platform participants had priced in a 36% chance of a number above that level amidst 62% odds of a figure that fails to exceed the threshold. But the unemployment rate is notoriously volatile, and there was a 24% likelihood on Thursday of a result at 6.4% or below as well as a 10% probability of a statistic arriving north of 6.8%. Emblematic of the wild swings we’ve seen historically, the monthly Reuters poll of 19 forecasters carried a median of 6.6% against the backdrop of a minimum projection of 6.3% and a maximum of 6.7%. For context, in the last 12 months ending in January, the low and high values have been 6.6% and 7.1%.

Forecast Contract - Will Canada's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.6% in February 2026?

Forecast Contract - Canada Unemployment Rate

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 12, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of March 12, 2026.

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