A 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Existed on Thursday: Sept. 10, 2026

On Thursday, the following day’s release of the pivotal US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to have an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets signaled just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading. Indeed, the “Yes” contract with a 3.4% threshold was going for $0.20, but I believed it was undervalued. The distribution of economist expectations agreed, as the Reuters poll of 53 forecasters carried an upside bias, with the median estimate at 3.4% amidst minimum and maximum projections at 3.3% and 3.8%, indicating a belief that a loftier print was more likely than a lower result. Over and under, however, the “Yeses” at 3.2%, 3.3%, and 3.5% were at $0.90, $0.63, and $0.07.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Consider The 0.2% “Yes” on The Core CPI

The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics and was scheduled for a Friday release, was expected to be 0.2% month over month on Thursday, yet participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the “Yes” contract with that threshold at only $0.25. Similar to the example above, I believed on Thursday that it should have been closer to $0.40, as the Reuters poll of 67 forecasters saw a path to 0.3%. Indeed, the minimum and maximum estimates were 0.1% and 0.3% and those “Yeses” were going for $0.87 and $0.03 on Thursday. The y/y version of the indicator offered a comparable opportunity, as the “Yes” at the consensus expectation of 2.4% was priced at only $0.19, while the 2.2% and 2.6% thresholds were at $0.93 and $0.06.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UMich Sentiment Expected To Retreat Slightly

The Friday release of the University of Michigan (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index was expected on Thursday to reflect a slight decline, because elevated inflation, rising interest rates and stock market volatility likely weighed on household moods. The Reuters poll consisting of 34 forecasters collectively predicted a drop from 51.7 to 51, amidst minimum and maximum expectations of 49 and 52.5. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contracts, which settle on the release of the final numbers on Sept. 25, offered the 44, 46, 48 and 50 “Yeses” at $0.92, $0.72, $0.59 and $0.47 as of Thursday.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Sept. 10, 2026. 

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