This week’s US Jobs Friday was moved Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday and its associated extended weekend. On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants anticipated a June number near 111.7k, as that threshold carried “Yes” pricing of $0.50, consistent with a coinflip. The odds were essentially in-line with the economist consensus estimate of 110k, with projections on Wednesday that ranged from 25k to 200k, according to a Reuters poll of 70 forecasters. When analyzing probabilities from an over and under framework, the “Yeses” at 150k, 50k and 0 were priced at $0.30, $0.81 and $0.94, indicating an elevated likelihood of a result poised to decelerate from May’s 172k; however, a statistic above 100k would signal an ongoing reacceleration.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Unemployment Was Expected To Steady at 4.3%
Thursday’s US unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the “Yes” at 4.2% and the “No” at 4.3% were going for $0.69 and $0.68. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 4.4%, 4.1% and 4% were priced at $0.07, $0.90 and $0.97, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes. The limited set of values was also apparent in the Reuters poll of 68 forecasters, which carried a median estimate of 4.3% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.2% and 4.4%.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Claims $0.76 “Yes” at 210K Looked Attractive
Also on Wednesday, the $0.76 “Yes” at 210k looked attractive to me as it related to Thursday’s initial unemployment claims, because this indicator has tended to feature summer increases in recent years and the past seven prints haven’t been below that threshold. Additionally, not one of the 37 forecasters polled by Reuters expected a figure that low with projections having ranged from 215k to 230k amidst a median estimate of 220k. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 230k, 220k and 200k were going for $0.10, $0.34 and $0.94 on Wednesday.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 1, 2026.
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