US PCE, Claims, WEI Contracts: June 24, 2026

Thursday was scheduled to be a busy day for the US economic calendar, and Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants expected to see elevated inflation, strong economic activity and subdued layoffs. For the Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), a 4.1% reading was anticipated as of Wednesday by the economist consensus while the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market pointed to only a 43% chance that the index would be above 4% when released on Thursday. With a corresponding $0.43 price, the instrument, in my opinion, was undervalued. Additionally, on top of the “Yes” at 4% for $0.43, this indicator is well telegraphed by Wall Street and rarely surprises by more than 0.1%, so taking the “Yes” at 3.8% and the “No” at 4.2% would be worth a shot at around $0.94 each. Still, of the 33 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum and maximum projections were 3.9% and 4.3%, indicating a wide range of possible outcomes, a contrast from its traditional tendencies.

WEI Expected Under 3%

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) from the Dallas Fed, also slated for a Thursday release, has come in under 3% in only one of the past five prints and the “Yes” at that specific threshold was priced at only $0.41 on Wednesday, offering what I considered to be an undervalued opportunity. The trade would pay out $1.00 on a number of 3.01% or higher and in my view should have been priced closer to $0.70, as recent data have supported the acceleration case over the slowdown one.  

Claims Expected Around 220K

On Wednesday, initial unemployment claims were expected to be around 220k when released the following day, with the “Yes” predictive contracts at 210k, 220k, 230k and 240k thresholds going for $0.74, $0.46, $0.13, and $0.07. The result would reflect ongoing labor market stability.

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 24, 2026. 

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