On Tuesday, the subsequent day’s US New Home Sales print covering May was expected to come in at 640k seasonally adjusted annualized units, a modest increase from April’s 622k. The publication was projected to be the fourth result of the year under 650k; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market “No” contract at that threshold was priced at only $0.38, offering a wide path for a triple-like opportunity for investors who would receive $1.00 if the release had failed to exceed that level. Real estate data have been sluggish lately, as elevated mortgage rates and pricey valuations have limited transaction momentum, and for that reason, on Tuesday, I found this trade to be undervalued. Additionally, I also thought the “Nos” at 625k, 700k and 725k were attractive as I believed participants in the interactive Brokers Prediction Market were too optimistic for this specific release; the contracts were priced at $0.13, $0.83 and $0.83. Turning to the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters, the minimum and maximum values were 602k and 675k against the backdrop of a 639k median. Finally, this gauge is notoriously volatile and sports a lofty deviation rate, indicating a high potential for significant surprises on a relative basis.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 23, 2026.
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