Central Bank Forecasts: Fed, BoC, BoJ To Hold: March, 17, 2026 

On Tuesday, IBK ForecastTrader participants anticipated that the US Fed, Bank of Canada (Boc) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) would leave rates unchanged during their meetings on Wednesday, March 18. Indeed, the market pointed to 96% or higher likelihoods that the organizations would pause. Monetary policy officials from around the globe have been highly attentive to the recent surge in energy prices and the associated risks to their inflation mandates. For this reason, policymakers are increasingly likely to maintain existing short-term costs of capital or begin hiking, with fewer opting to reduce their respective benchmarks.

But Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Miran Could Dissent

There was a high expectation that the Fed decision would feature a formal disagreement from one of the voting members, however, as Governors Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller and/or Stephen Miran may prefer to drop the benchmark by 25-basis points in light of labor market risks. Indeed, as of Tuesday there was a 97% chance of at least one dissenter while there were 29% and 50% probabilities of exactly one or two dissenters opting for a different move than the majority. 

But Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Miran Could Dissent

There was a high expectation that the Fed decision would feature a formal disagreement from one of the voting members, however, as Governors Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller and/or Stephen Miran may prefer to drop the benchmark by 25-basis points in light of labor market risks. Indeed, as of Tuesday there was a 97% chance of at least one dissenter while there were 29% and 50% probabilities of exactly one or two dissenters opting for a different move than the majority. 

PPI Expected Around 3% Tomorrow

The US Producer Price Index (PPI), scheduled for a Wednesday, March 17 release, was expected to hit around 3%, according to participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market. Indeed, on Tuesday, there was a 41% percent chance of a result above 3% as well as a 59% likelihood of a figure that fails to exceed that threshold. When looking at levels under and over, there were 11% odds of a statistic north of 3.5% and a 6% feasibility of a print at 2.5% or lower.

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 17, 2026. Times until market closings were also as of March 17, 2026. 

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