Canada Unemployment Expected Flat Tomorrow Morning: Jan. 5, 2026

Canada’s unemployment rate has been volatile in the past few months, ranging from 6.5% to 7.1% through 2025. Friday’s first read of the year covering was expected to be unchanged from December’s 6.8%, although some forecasters expected a surprise. Indeed, of the 16 economists surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum and maximum values penciled in stood at 6.6% and 6.9% on the day before the rate was published. The IBKR ForecastTrader marketplace, meanwhile, had priced in 63%, 35% and 3% probabilities of results north of 6.8%, 6.9% and 7%. Conversely, however, the likelihood of a print failing to exceed 6.8%, 6.9% and 7% were at 35%, 63% and 95%.

IBKR ForecastTrader contract regarding Canada unemployment rate

Pricing of IBKR ForecastTrader contracts regarding Canada unemployment rate

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 5, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of Feb. 5, 2026.

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Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.

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