On Wednesday, economists anticipated that the Thursday release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October would show a 2.7% increase. Of the various IBKR ForcastTrader contracts addressing this topic, the instrument with “Yes” at 2.5% was priced at $0.89. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arrive at a figure that low.
Hong Kong CPI Expected at 1.2%, But Its Historically Volatile
Even though none of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll envision a number of 1.5% or higher for the Thursday Hong Kong Consumer Price Index release (they’re between 1.1% and 1.4%), this indicator has been historically volatile. As of Wednesday, of the various contracts focused on this release, “Yes” at 1.4% was priced at $0.05.
US Growth Expectations Are Strong
The 13-week moving average of the Dallas Fed’s Economic Index has been running at 2.23% but ForecastTrader participants think there’s a good chance that this year will feature a reacceleration in growth after last week’s strong 2.43% reading. Indeed, for Thursday’s result, investors on Wednesday had priced in 43% odds of a number north of 2.4%, which would mark the second print in a row above that threshold, which is a pretty tall bar.
Claims Have Been All Over the Place
Initial US unemployment claims have been all over the place lately, as is typical surrounding holiday months. Emblematic of the volatility were the last three months serving numbers as high as 237k for the week ended Dec. 6 or as low as 192k for the seven-day period culminating on Nov. 29.
Can Canada New Homes Come in Positive?
Canada’s New Housing Price Index hasn’t come in positive since February, but ForecastTrader investors see a path back to growth in December. Indeed, the “Yes” at -0.1% signaled Wednesday afternoon 61% odds of a figure landing at 0 or above.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 21, 2026. Contract time until market close is also as of Jan. 21, 2026.
To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here.
Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
New to Prediction Markets?
Open a Prediction Markets AccountDisclosure: Interactive Brokers Affiliate
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account