Monday’s ForecastEx trading saw a few block trades characterized by 10k contracts or more in a single transaction. Total volumes of 3.33 million on Dec. 8 were supported by an afternoon featuring single trades of 20k and 10k at 4:55 PM ET tied to whether Josh Shapiro will win the US Democratic Nomination for President in 2028. Meanwhile, at 4:45 PM ET and at 4:35 PM ET, we saw two single transactions of 15k and 10k connected to whether the US Democratic Party will win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms and if the Federal Reserve will cut by 25 basis points tomorrow.
Past performance is not indicative of future results?
Bank of Canada was Expected to Pause
Despite expectations with a 98% degree of confidence on Tuesday that the US Fed would reduce its interest rate on Dec. 10, Canada was expected to pause, as its central bankers had signaled an extended halt in light of strengthening economic prospects and 2.2% inflation. Odds of a reduction in the US jumped from 26% in mid-November as a few voting members voiced a need to support the labor market. But probabilities in Canada had remained north of 86% for several weeks, against the backdrop of subdued volatility relative to its southern neighbor.
Past performance is not indicative of future results?
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 9, 2025. Days till expiration were also as of Dec. 9, 2025.
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