Dear Investor,
Apple is once again back in the spotlight just as its strong summer seasonal pattern approaches. With earnings due after the close on Thursday, July 31 and a critical U.S. tariff deadline on August 1, investors are weighing the company’s management shake‑up as well as the companies AI challenges against this surprisingly bullish seasonal window. Let’s analyze the seasonal data in detail.
- Instrument: Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Average Pattern Move: +5.03%
- Timeframe: 9 August – 2 September
- Winning Percentage: 72.00%
The detrended seasonal chart below shows that over the last 25 years, Apple’s shares have historically delivered an average gain of +5.03% between 9 August and 2 September. They have had a striking 107.10% annualized return and a 72% win rate. Seasonax’s detrended chart is helpful to use as it removes overarching trends from the calculation, showing Apple’s share price climbing into early September. Seasonax’s data shows that this window has produced gains in 18 out of 25 years, with the largest rally in this period hitting a stunning +31.45%.
Macro Cross: Earnings, Tariffs, and a Leadership Shake‑Up
This year’s seasonal window collides with pivotal macro events:
- Earnings after the close on Thursday, July 31: Investors will scrutinize results for iPhone demand, Chinese revenue trends, and any further commentary on supply chain resilience.
- August 1 tariff deadline: With U.S.–China tensions flaring, a new round of tariffs could directly impact Apple’s cost base and margins on China‑assembled devices.
- Management transition: COO Jeff Williams is stepping down, CFO Luca Maestri is transitioning out, and Apple’s design and operations teams are being reshuffled under Tim Cook’s direct oversight. Analysts view this as Apple’s biggest leadership turnover in decades, just as the company faces AI setbacks and regulatory scrutiny.
Despite these headwinds, Apple’s board remains steadfast behind Cook. There is no immediate successor ready, and the company is signaling stability at the top even as it quietly restructures its senior ranks.
Technical Picture: A Pattern Worth Watching
Seasonax’s cumulative profit curve, shown below, trends decisively higher. The cumulative profit curve shows the total profit or loss you would have made if you bought and held Apple during the highlighted time period every single year in the data history. In other words, imagine you repeated the same trade each year in that time window–this number adds up all those results into one cumulative return.
From a technical perspective, the chart below shows price consolidating just beneath a key trend line drawn from April, around the $216 level. A decisive breakout above this area could attract momentum buyers and intraday traders scanning for flag or pennant formations on lower time frames. A daily close above $216 would also place price back above both the 100‑ and 200‑day EMAs, with the added advantage that protective stops could be set fairly tight beneath the lower trend line near $208.
Conclusion: Tread Carefully, But Don’t Ignore the Data
Apple’s seasonal pattern into early September is unusually strong. Yet with earnings on July 31, the August 1 tariff deadline, and ongoing leadership changes, this year’s trade carries more macro risk than usual. Even amid a volatile broader tech landscape, Apple’s historical profile in August suggests a favorable bias – but only if external shocks (like tariffs or weak guidance) don’t derail the pattern. Traders may want to monitor guidance closely and, as always, consider protective stops – but the historical odds for this window remain compelling. Another, more conservative, approach would be to wait for the earnings release and, if positive, look for some intraday moves higher in line with the technical break of 216 and positive seasonal bias. Remember, Apple earnings are due shortly after the close on Thursday July 31 and significant volatility can be expected.
Use Seasonax for your professional handling of market-moving events to find stocks poised to move!
—
Originally Posted July 30, 2025 – Apple’s August Advantage: Can Earnings and Tariff News Supercharge the Trend?
Disclosure: Seasonax
Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. Seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. Seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by Seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. Seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers Third Party
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Seasonax and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Seasonax and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs page. go to: IBKR Ireland FAQs or IBKR U.K. FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services: IBKR Ireland or IBKR U.K..
Visit IBKR U.K. Open an IBKR U.K. Account