{"id":9193,"date":"2024-01-04T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2024-01-04T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/uncategorized\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\/"},"modified":"2024-01-22T07:41:01","modified_gmt":"2024-01-22T07:41:01","slug":"bad-santa-and-bad-apples","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\/","title":{"rendered":"Bad Santa and Bad Apples"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the short year that has transpired so far, there have been two key themes in the equity market.&nbsp; First is that the so-called \u201cSanta Claus Rally\u201d failed to materialize.&nbsp; The second is that Apple (AAPL) has been hit by sequential downgrades.&nbsp; Neither is a positive, but neither is all that surprising.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The absent Santa Claus rally has gotten a fair share of media attention.&nbsp; There is an old expression: \u201cIf Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.\u201d [The NYSE is located at the corner of Broad and Wall Streets.]&nbsp; In short, if we don\u2019t get a rally in the last five trading days of a year-end and the first two days of a new year, it bodes poorly for the rest of the year to come.&nbsp; I won\u2019t get into the nuances, and instead will recommend two columns that do a good job of explaining the phenomenon and the consequences of its misfire, one by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2024\/01\/03\/the-santa-claus-rally-is-in-trouble-and-that-may-signal-weaker-stocks-.html\">Bob Pisani of CNBC<\/a> and the other by <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/why-santa-just-poured-cold-water-on-a-bullish-2024-110042811.html\">Jared Blikre of Yahoo Finance<\/a>.&nbsp; The bottom line is that most of the time we see stocks rally during the period in question, since it encompasses the lightest volume week of the year (\u201cdon\u2019t short a dull tape\u201d) and a short period when new money might be put to work.&nbsp; Even then, the relatively rare times that it doesn\u2019t work \u2013 only 12 times since 1969 \u2013 have an imperfect track record.&nbsp; It fails more often than it works.&nbsp; I think of the words of the character Brian Fantana in the movie \u201cAnchorman\u201d: <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/k8djas5pIvk\">Sixty percent of the time, it works every time<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the reasons why the market has been under pressure this week is that the most highly capitalized stock, AAPL, has been getting downgraded by various brokerage firms.&nbsp; Considering that AAPL is about 6% of the S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX) about 9% of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX), a significant decline in that share becomes a significant headwind to those major indices.&nbsp; But it also means that AAPL benefitted immensely from the recent market run-up.&nbsp; According to Bloomberg data, over $32 billion flowed into SPY alone, with billions more flowing into other indexed ETFs.&nbsp; By necessity, over 6% of that money needed to be invested in AAPL.&nbsp; It became a huge beneficiary of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/weaponized-fomo-takes-a-breather-2\/\">weaponized FOMO<\/a>\u201d that occurred as portfolio managers raced into high performing equities and individuals chased momentum into year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet the downgrades should not have come as a huge surprise to those who have been paying close attention to AAPL\u2019s top and bottom lines.\u00a0 After AAPL\u2019s last earnings report, we questioned what happens \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/yay-fewer-jobs-plus-when-the-biggest-growth-stock-doesnt-grow\/\">when the biggest growth stock doesn\u2019t grow<\/a>\u201d, writing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>But for AAPL, investors should be concerned about sales overall. Although total revenues rose sequentially, breaking a three-quarter downtrend, this was the fourth quarter in a row when revenues fell on a year-over-year basis.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Quite frankly, it is hard to reckon with a growth stock whose sales aren\u2019t growing. AAPL is a cash-generating machine, with over $20 billion in positive cash flow every quarter.&nbsp; That has led to a cash hoard of over $160bn. With short-term rates at 5%, that can be a significant contributor to the company\u2019s bottom line, but investors aren\u2019t paying 28X earnings for a company with no revenue growth and only modest EPS growth. AAPL earned $6.13 per share in 2023 (it\u2019s fiscal year just ended); it earned $6.11 in 2022. Is that a growth stock? It will take some time for the market to decide whether to reclassify AAPL as a value stock.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In November and December, investors were in no mood to reclassify AAPL as a value stock.&nbsp; But in January, some analysts have made moves in that direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are particularly concerned about the recent two-day swoon, or the lackluster seven-day performance, remember that it is too early to draw any conclusions about the year to come \u2013 let alone about how tomorrow\u2019s jobs report might be received.&nbsp; Also consider whether you questioned any part of the recent two-month rally.&nbsp; We were up nine weeks in a row \u2013 a great run \u2013 and if you failed to express any skepticism on the way up, then it\u2019s unfair to question a relatively minor pullback.&nbsp; There are plenty of reasons to question whether markets got ahead of themselves \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampusdev.wpengine.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/a-breather-or-a-hangover\/\">we laid several out yesterday<\/a> \u2013 and I\u2019d rather focus on the broader reasons why investors might need a rest after a nine-week binge.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not to dismiss Santa, but the AAPL story is one that has broader implications for valuation and growth than a historical quirk with a solid, but uneven track record.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the short year that has transpired so far, there have been two key themes in the equity market.  First is that the so-called &#8220;Santa Claus Rally&#8221; failed to materialize.  The second is that Apple (AAPL) has been hit by sequential downgrades.  Neither is a positive, but neither is all that surprising.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":8320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[321,314,748,383],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-9193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-apple","tag-market-outlook","tag-santa-claus-rally","tag-stock-market","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bad Santa and Bad Apples | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In the short year that has transpired so far, there have been two key themes in the equity market. 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The second is that Apple (AAPL) has been hit by sequential downgrades.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-01-04T17:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-01-22T07:41:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2023\/12\/santa-grinch.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Bad Santa and Bad Apples\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2024-01-04T17:00:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2024-01-22T07:41:01+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 797,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2023\\\/12\\\/santa-grinch.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"Apple\",\n\t                \"market outlook\",\n\t                \"Santa Claus Rally\",\n\t                \"stock market\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Stocks\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/bad-santa-and-bad-apples\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Bad Santa and Bad Apples - 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