1<\/sup> I get the sense that investors are hoping for a similar outcome. If enough of us click our heels together and repeat “soft landing, soft landing, soft landing\u2026”, will one magically appear?<\/p>\n\n\n\nAs we recently noted, Fed Funds expectations had a major reset last week. Fed Funds futures went from a modest chance for an additional (final) hike to zero. They also placed higher probabilities for additional, accelerated cuts in the coming months. A cut is not considered likely by May and certain by June. A second cut in July is considered a near-certainty. These changing expectations have encouraged both equity and fixed income investors, and prices have rallied sharply in both markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The drops in yields have indeed been quite dramatic. Since their recent peak in mid-October, 2-year Treasury yields have dropped from 5.22% to 4.89%. That essentially reflects the elimination of an additional 25-basis point hike. Meanwhile, 10-year yields have plunged from 4.99% to 4.45%. There is much more to that move than 25bp here and there. It incorporates some resetting of inflationary expectations over the coming years while still exhibiting some consideration for a decent economy.2<\/sup> Yet when viewed over a longer period of time, these moves fit well within the context of the prior year. The 2-years are still near their highs over that period, while the 10-year yield is still well above levels from just before the summer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1 Year Line Chart, 2-Year (red) and 10-Year (white) Yields<\/strong> Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\nAt the beginning of 2022, we questioned whether the famed pilot \u201cSully\u201d Sullenberger was in fact the better analog for Chair Powell than Goldilocks. We wrote: <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n\u2026it occurred to me that investors have decided that Jerome Powell is a financial version of Captain Chesley Sullenberger. For those who have forgotten the reference, \u201cSully\u201d became famous for guiding a stricken airplane to a safe landing in the Hudson River. Faced with a set of unexpected, incredibly difficult circumstances \u2013 in his case, a commercial airliner with both engines disabled by bird strikes shortly after takeoff \u2013 he used his knowledge and training to ultimately bring the plane under his command to a safe landing.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\nHere\u2019s the problem with that analogy: we have no idea if Mr. Powell will be able to land the market without incident this time around. While it is clear that investors are enamored with the Fed\u2019s response to the Covid crisis in early 2020, the current situation is quite different.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\nSullenberger was famous for his skillful landing under essentially impossible circumstances. But it wasn\u2019t a soft landing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The situation is quite different now than it was in 2022. We didn\u2019t know it at the time, but the S&P 500 (SPX) peaked just a week prior at a level we have yet to recoup. Rates had begun to rise but were nowhere close to where they are now. The 2-year had nearly doubled in about 2 months, but from only 0.5% to 0.89%, while the 10-year had moved about 20bp higher over that span to 1.75%. It\u2019s hard to imagine rates returning to that level \u2013 barring a catastrophe \u2013 yet SPX is only about 6% below its January 2022 peak. Equity markets \u2013 or at least the mega-cap tech stocks that dominate the major indices \u2013 have largely adjusted to the higher rate environment and the anticipation that rates are likely to dip from here on out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
We also need to reconcile the fact that some key commodities could be hinting at something other than a soft landing. Crude oil prices have plunged recently, though only back to levels that have prevailed for much of this year, while copper is near its lows:<\/p>\n\n\n
\n
Crude Oil, Rolling Front Month Contract, 1-Year Daily Candles<\/strong> Source: Interactive Brokers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
Copper, Rolling Front Month Contract, 1-Year Daily Candles<\/strong> Source: Interactive Brokers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\nMeanwhile, a long-term chart of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) shows us near historic cyclical lows, even as recent Gross Domestic Product prints don\u2019t confirm the recent dip:<\/p>\n\n\n
\n
Leading Economic Indicators (white) and Gross Domestic Product (blue) since 1959<\/strong> Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\nThe data leads me to think that rather than some fictional girls, the correct market persona is an experience proven pilot. He undoubtedly has engineered many soft landings during his career, yet he is most famous for a difficult, but ultimately successful under incredibly difficult circumstances. I\u2019d much prefer to put my faith in someone like that than a mythical figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
(And perhaps the best analog would be a very capable, highly successful young woman who doubles as a business mogul when she\u2019s not performing. But as I noted in an article yesterday, I need to leave Taylor Swift out my reports. It would be \u201clame\u201d to do otherwise.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n
1<\/sup> Never mind that she prefers sepia-toned, black-and-white Kansas to the technicolor Oz. <\/p>\n\n\n\n2<\/sup> Or concerns about US indebtedness\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"…I wonder if a simple country girl from Kansas might be the more appropriate market metaphor these days … “The Wizard of Oz”,\u00a0the movie gets a happy ending\u00a0when Dorothy simply clicks her heels together and repeats the phrase “there’s no place like home” until she magically returns to her farm … If enough of us click our heels together and repeat “soft landing, soft landing, soft landing\u2026”, will one magically appear?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7970,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,16,145,146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[712,671,713,714,362,715,716,717,312,718,253,291,314,688,719,383,316,720,721],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-7969","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-fixed-income","8":"category-futures","9":"category-ibkr-market-insights","10":"category-macro","11":"category-north-america","12":"category-region","13":"category-securities","14":"category-stocks","15":"category-text-articles","16":"category-traders-insight","17":"tag-copper","18":"tag-crude-oil","19":"tag-cyclical-stocks","20":"tag-economic-indicators","21":"tag-economic-outlook","22":"tag-equity-investors","23":"tag-fed-chair-powell","24":"tag-fed-funds","25":"tag-fed-rates","26":"tag-fixed-income","27":"tag-futures","28":"tag-macro","29":"tag-market-outlook","30":"tag-rate-cuts","31":"tag-soft-landing","32":"tag-stock-market","33":"tag-stocks","34":"tag-u-s-gdp","35":"tag-us-treasury-yields","36":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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If enough of us click our heels together and repeat \"soft landing, soft landing, soft landing\u2026\", will one magically appear?","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/goldilocks-or-dorothy\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/goldilocks-or-dorothy\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/goldilocks-or-dorothy\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2023\/11\/dorothy-soft-landing-market-metaphor-finance.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2023\/11\/dorothy-soft-landing-market-metaphor-finance.jpg","width":1000,"height":563,"caption":"Red Shoes, graphic."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/goldilocks-or-dorothy\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Goldilocks or Dorothy?"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#website","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/","name":"IBKR Campus EU","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549","name":"Steve Sosnick","description":"Steve is the Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers. He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2023\/11\/dorothy-soft-landing-market-metaphor-finance.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7969\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7970"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7969"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=7969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
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