{"id":219308,"date":"2026-11-04T11:15:06","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T16:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T11:45:33","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T11:45:33","slug":"did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact\/","title":{"rendered":"Did the Bank of Canada overreact?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why did the Bank of Canada feel compelled to raise interest rates when the Fed did not?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-interest-rates\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Interest rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) opted to raise interest rates by 25 basis point<a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-02-did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact\/#footnote-ref-1\"><sup>1<\/sup><\/a> while the U.S. Federal Reserve held steady.<a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-02-did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact\/#footnote-ref-2\"><sup>2<\/sup><\/a> Though the BoC\u2019s move was widely expected, we had hoped that they would remain on the sidelines. There are more things to worry about than just inflation, such as the trade situation and a slowing economy. While inflation has ticked higher, we are also coming off of a disappointing jobs number, so we don\u2019t quite understand the BoC\u2019s rush to raise rates at this stage. Additionally, the BoC is projecting inflation to be much higher next year, and while prices may continue to increase, the Bank\u2019s estimate is higher than others we\u2019re seeing on the street. Given the myriad uncertainties impacting the Canadian economy, one could even have made the case for cutting rates (though that would have been quite bold), so the decision to raise rates at this stage is a bit puzzling. Going forward, we expect this decision to put further pressure on the housing market and the consumer, and increase companies\u2019 debt servicing costs. The Fed\u2019s decision was a bit more straightforward. They raised rates last month despite trying to find a reason not to; the economy was strong and inflation was too high, so the decision made sense. Having already made that move, they had the freedom to take a wait-and-see approach this time, and that\u2019s exactly what happened. It is possible the BoC will do the same at its next meeting\u2014though central banks rarely hike interest rates just once in a given cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bottom line: While inflation remains elevated, we think the Bank of Canada\u2019s decision to raise interest rates sent the wrong message at the wrong time, especially given some of the positive news we\u2019re seeing coming out of recent trade summits.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-canada\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Canada<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What will the Bank of Canada\u2019s rate hike mean for the Canadian consumer? It\u2019s an important question. In general, the Canadian economy survived the 2022 rate-increasing cycle without too much damage, though Canadians also benefitted from excess savings from the COVID fallout. Now, on the heels of that cycle, rates are going up again, and we\u2019d expect it to ratchet up pressure on the consumer. With many Canadians tied to variable-rate mortgages or with fixed-rate mortgages set to renew, higher rates will eat into consumers\u2019 disposable income and further weaken an already-weak housing market. Our assumption is that the BoC is also unlikely to only raise rates once; one rate hike is unlikely to accomplish much, so more increases can be expected down the road even if the Bank does pause at its next meeting. Canadians\u2019 net worth is tied to housing prices, so a tumble there would be significant. And if U.S.-Canada trade tensions persist, companies could exit the country, causing job losses and adding further pressure to the housing market. Declining immigration also reduces demand. Rents are likely to come down, but that is about the only positive we can see.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bottom line: The BoC\u2019s rate increase is likely to increase pressure on the housing market and the Canadian consumer, especially in light of ongoing trade-related headwinds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Positioning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For a detailed breakdown of our portfolio positioning, check out the latest BMO GAM House View Report, titled <a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/trick-or-treat-stubborn-risks-meet-market-optimism\/\"><em><u>Trick or treat? Stubborn risks meet market optimism<\/u><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted November 2, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/bmogam.com\/ca-en\/insights\/weekly-commentary-november-02-did-the-bank-of-canada-overreact\/\">Did the Bank of Canada overreact?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Why did the Bank of Canada feel compelled to raise interest rates when the Fed did not?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":919,"featured_media":209053,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[545],"class_list":["post-219308","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-bmo-exchange-traded-funds"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Did the Bank of Canada overreact? 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