{"id":219256,"date":"2026-11-02T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/economic-update-week-of-november-2-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T09:52:18","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T09:52:18","slug":"economic-update-week-of-november-2-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/economic-update-week-of-november-2-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Economic Update: Week of November 2, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NEW THIS WEEK<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-growth\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Real GDP grew 3.4% SAAR in 3Q, accelerating from 2.2% in 2Q and exceeding expectations, as strong business investment and consumer spending outweighed a drag from net exports. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.9%, while nonresidential investment surged 12.7%, supported by continued AI-related spending. Consumer spending rose 3.8%, and federal spending added nearly 1% to growth, while residential investment fell 3.3% amid demographic shifts and high mortgage rates. Looking ahead, growth may moderate as fiscal support fades and housing remains weak, though business investment should continue to provide support. Imports of AI-related hardware may keep net exports a drag, but with PCE inflation at 3.6%, the Fed may look to raise rates in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-jobs\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jobs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The September jobs report was much more subdued compared to August&#8217;s hot print. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 29k, below consensus estimates of 90k.The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, with labor supply still looking tight. Private payrolls rose 46k, led by construction and health care, but employment in financial activities fell by 7k. However, government payrolls fell by 17k in September. Despite inflation remaining stubbornly above target, wages have only increased by 3.0% over the last year, which is the smallest y\/y gain since 2021. Workers appear less willing to quit their jobs or push aggressively for higher pay, suggesting confidence in the job market may be softening. While this report doesn&#8217;t raise any immediate concerns about the health of the labor market, it does point to a more muted pace of hiring than we&#8217;ve seen in recent months. If that trend continues, it could have meaningful implications for the policy path going forward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-profits\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The second quarter earnings season was strong, driven by AI and energy. S&amp;P 500 EPS grew about by about 48% y\/y, the second consecutive quarter of 20%+ earnings growth. Importantly, the numbers are being skewed by large paper gains from the hyperscalers&#8217; investments in private AI companies. Excluding those, earnings growth would still be strong at around 37%. Growth remains concentrated, but has followed capex dollars out of the hyperscalers and into the semiconductor industry, which is driving over half the index level growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-inflation\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Headline CPI rose 0.6% m\/m, the largest monthly increase since April, pushing the y\/y rate to 3.7%, driven primarily by a further acceleration in energy prices. Core CPI again came in hotter than expected, rising 0.3% m\/m compared to consensus estimates of 0.2%. Core inflation was led higher by several categories, including recreation, used cars and trucks, education and airline fares. Elsewhere, food prices were contained. With core CPI still elevated relative to the Fed&#8217;s target, the question on investors&#8217; minds has now shifted from &#8220;Will the Fed hike rates?&#8221; to &#8220;How many times will the Fed hike rates?&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NEW THIS WEEK<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-rates\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.75-4.00%. The committee upgraded its growth assessment to &#8220;strong&#8221; from &#8220;solid,&#8221; but also noted the need for more information to assess the impact of last month&#8217;s rate hike, preserving the option to hike or hold in December. Economic strength outside of AI was also highlighted while the committee reaffirmed its commitment to returning to 2% inflation. Although markets are pricing in a December hike, upcoming jobs and inflation data will be key in determining whether it materializes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risks\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An extended conflict in the Middle East could weigh on growth and pressure inflation higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Elevated geopolitical tensions could spark bouts of volatility, particularly in expensive markets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-investment-themes\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Investment Themes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solid fundamentals should allow U.S. markets to continue to grind higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiscal stimulus, dollar weakness and regional catalysts should support strong international performance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Private markets can offer investors more ways to access the AI theme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/economic-update\/\">This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted November 2, 2026 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/economic-update\/\">Economic Update<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Real GDP grew 3.4% SAAR in 3Q, accelerating from 2.2% in 2Q and exceeding expectations, as strong business investment and consumer spending outweighed a drag from net exports. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":213247,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":["post-219256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This 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