{"id":219192,"date":"2026-10-30T12:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T16:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\/"},"modified":"2026-11-05T09:42:29","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T09:42:29","slug":"things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\/","title":{"rendered":"Things Are Getting Volatile in Tech-Land"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyone who turned on their screens today could not help but notice the selloff in stocks, particularly those in the tech sector.&nbsp; As I type this, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.6% lower, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is more than 3% lower.&nbsp; The fact that NDX is more volatile than SPX is not a surprise; that is quite typical.&nbsp; But I was asked this morning whether tech has become even more volatile recently, especially in comparison to the broader market.&nbsp; The short answer is \u201cyes,\u201d but it\u2019s important to look at some of the key measures and the potential reasons why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A quick glance at the historical volatilities of SPX and NDX confirms the basic premise.&nbsp; We can use NDX as a proxy for tech and SPX as a proxy for the broader market, even if it too is top-heavy with megacap tech shares. The charts below show various measures of historical volatility for both indices over the past year.&nbsp; When we look at their shorter-term historical volatilities, we certainly see both lower peaks and lower floors for SPX than for NDX for both the 10-day and 30-day measures.&nbsp; More notably, the 100-day historical volatility for SPX is relatively stable around the 0.75% daily level while NDX\u2018s has risen steadily to 1.35% over the course of the past year.&nbsp; (Remember, you can convert that to annualized measures by using the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=fbb6dc3d91aff00ed35d83a4cead5083acd576235956a2fec35c140ad2291bfbJmltdHM9MTc5MzMxODQwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=0168cf82-21ba-6dd8-1a88-d87220626c6e&amp;psq=ibkr+campus+rule+of+16&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuaW50ZXJhY3RpdmVicm9rZXJzLmNvbS9jYW1wdXMvdHJhZGVycy1pbnNpZ2h0L3NlY3VyaXRpZXMvb3B0aW9ucy91bmRlcnN0YW5kLXRoZS1ydWxlLW9mLTE2Lw\">rule of 16\u201d<\/a>.&nbsp; A 0.75% daily volatility is roughly a 12% annualized volatility and 1.35% daily converts to 21.6% annualized.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>1-Year Historical Volatilities of SPX, 10-day (yellow), 30-day (orange), 100-day (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"769\" height=\"422\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-56.png\" alt=\"spx chart\" class=\"wp-image-219193 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 769px; aspect-ratio: 769\/422;aspect-ratio:1.8222748815165877;width:769px;height:auto\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em>, <em>past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>1-Year Historical Volatilities of NDX, 10-day (yellow), 30-day (orange), 100-day (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"776\" height=\"431\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-57.png\" alt=\"ndx chart\" class=\"wp-image-219194 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 776px; aspect-ratio: 776\/431;aspect-ratio:1.8004640371229699;width:776px;height:auto\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One way to assess the market\u2019s perceptions about future volatilities is to use VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index) and VXN (the Cboe NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index).&nbsp; Their calculations are quite similar.&nbsp; Both attempt to measure market perceptions of volatility over the coming 30 days, with VIX using options on SPX and VXN using options on NDX.&nbsp; As you might have guessed, the spread between the two measures has widened.&nbsp; What you might not have realized is that the spread has been persistently above the levels that prevailed for the prior 5 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>5 Years, Daily Data: VIX (red), VXN (blue), VXN-VIX (green)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"482\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-58.png\" alt=\"vix chart\" class=\"wp-image-219195 lazyload\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 970px; aspect-ratio: 970\/482;aspect-ratio:2.012448132780083;width:970px;height:auto\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em>,<em> past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thus, having shown that NDX volatility, on either a historical or on a forward-looking basis, is elevated relative to both its own prior readings and to a broader market measure, let\u2019s think about the causes of that discrepancy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The fundamental nature of many of the largest tech companies has changed from cash-flow-generating machines to big borrowers, and\/or from reliable buyers of their own shares to equity issuers.&nbsp; This has added risk both to their balance sheets and their operating models.&nbsp; Hence, they have become more volatile.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Likely related to the prior point, after years of operating under the assumption that all money lent to or invested in AI would yield phenomenal returns, sober questions are being asked about ROI, ROE, and in some cases, return OF capital.&nbsp; If investors and lenders felt as though all investments in this new technology would be spectacularly profitable, then they could put concerns to the side.&nbsp; Now some scrutiny, and in some cases, doubt, has crept into investors\u2019 mindsets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Positioning got extreme. Was there anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting to learn more about AI-related tech before buying? \u00a0Highly doubtful. Thus, if investors of all stripes, particularly institutions, are fully invested, that sets the stage for a meh response to good news and a nasty response to disappointment. (The inverse is true for under-owned stocks and sectors, like software last quarter).\u00a0 We wrote more about this in yesterday\u2019s piece.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some of the tech selloffs over the past few sessions have seen a pronounced rotation into more defensive sectors, such as healthcare and staples, and asset classes such as bonds.&nbsp; Today\u2019s selling is a bit more broad-based, but as of noon ET we still see the S&amp;P 500 energy, consumer staples, real estate, utilities, and healthcare sectors higher.&nbsp; Once again, we see investors willing to reallocate into other stocks away from tech rather than just selling everything outright, even if that reallocation shows less conviction.&nbsp; It does not appear that investors are particularly enthusiastic about heading home with long positions over the weekend.&nbsp; It is Halloween, after all&#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Anyone who turned on their screens today could not help but notice the selloff in stocks, particularly those in the tech sector. As I type this, the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is about 1.6% lower, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is more than 3% lower. The fact that NDX is more volatile than SPX is not a surprise; that is quite typical. But I was asked this morning whether tech has become even more volatile recently, especially in comparison to the broader market. The short answer is \u201cyes,\u201d but it\u2019s important to look at some of the key measures and the potential reasons why.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":209775,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,18,8,148,7],"tags":[3901,4715,365,2911,4439],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-219192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-options","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-ai-investing","tag-investor-positioning-2","tag-market-volatility","tag-sector-rotation","tag-technology-stocks","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Things Are Getting Volatile in Tech-Land | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Anyone who turned on their screens today could not help but notice the selloff in stocks, particularly those in the tech sector. 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The short answer is \u201cyes,\u201d but it\u2019s important to look at some of the key measures and the potential reasons why.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-30T16:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-11-05T09:42:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/volatility-market-turbulence-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Things Are Getting Volatile in Tech-Land\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-10-30T16:45:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-11-05T09:42:29+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 773,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2025\\\/11\\\/volatility-market-turbulence-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"ai investing\",\n\t                \"investor positioning\",\n\t                \"market volatility\",\n\t                \"sector rotation\",\n\t                \"technology stocks\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Options\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/ibkr-market-insights\\\/things-are-getting-volatile-in-tech-land\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Things Are Getting Volatile in Tech-Land - 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. 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