{"id":219042,"date":"2026-10-23T11:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/the-world-keeps-buying-more-american-energy\/"},"modified":"2026-10-26T10:40:47","modified_gmt":"2026-10-26T10:40:47","slug":"the-world-keeps-buying-more-american-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/the-world-keeps-buying-more-american-energy\/","title":{"rendered":"The World Keeps Buying More American Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

An investor asked me the other day what\u2019s the most interesting theme across our portfolios. It has to be the export story. This blog often chronicles the outlook for US exports of hydrocarbons. Prospects improved with the war on Iran, and the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz is adding to the appeal of America as a reliable energy supplier. Qatar has been trying to buy LNG cargoes to make up for deliveries they\u2019re unable to make.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil dominates the energy headlines, but the big story is elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A decade ago we were net importers of natural gas. The Shale Revolution changed that in and within less than a decade the US became the world\u2019s biggest LNG exporter. Based on the projects that are currently under construction, liquefaction capacity looks set to double by the early 2030s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) export story is often overlooked. Volumes have tripled over the past decade. Propane dominates and is typically grouped with butane and isobutane as Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). Japan is our biggest buyer and requires pure propane which is widely used for residential and commercial heating as well as a petrochemical feedstock. China also uses propane primarily as a feedstock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blended LPG can be cheaper than pure propane, and developing economies tend to be the buyers. Over half of US LPG exports go to Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Five years ago China was our joint top destination along with South Korea for LNG exports. Evidently concluding that less US trade exposure is better, they slashed their volumes from just under 13% of our exports to virtually zero last year. They\u2019ve similarly been cutting back their holdings of US treasuries, probably in preparation for a move against Taiwan in the new few years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there are no alternative suppliers of ethane, which China\u2019s petrochemical industry uses to make ethylene for plastics and other industrial chemicals. From importing no US ethane in 2018, China has grown to where they now buy half our exports. With ethane they\u2019ve been forced to compromise on their goal of limiting their exposure to US energy imports, because they can\u2019t buy sufficient volumes anywhere else.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Incidentally, in researching this blog post I asked Google\u2019s Gemini to create a chart of US natural gas exports and imports. The data in the Excel spreadsheet it delivered didn\u2019t look right, but Gemini assured me it was \u201cdrawn from the official statistical releases of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unconvinced, I retrieved the data from the EIA myself and uploaded a comparison to Gemini asking it to explain why they were different. It turned out their data was \u201c\u2026generated synthetically\u2026 to approximate long-term industry growth trends.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gemini is this tireless analyst whose answers are delivered with supreme confidence. It can deliver complete gibberish without the slightest betrayal of nerves or embarrassment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When I noted that synthetic data wasn\u2019t actual data, it said, \u201cYou are completely right to call that out, and I apologize for misrepresenting the source earlier.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AI agents are good at saying sorry. They need to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I imagine that Gemini learned from this episode, at my expense. I\u2019ve learned to trust AI only when I can corroborate its work. AI agents already do amazing things, but their creators continue to push out error-prone models that place the burden for improvement on wrong answers delivered with conviction to their users \u2013 us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Venture Global (VG) has been a regular topic in this blog recently. A cheap stock became a little cheaper on Thursday and Friday following their entry into the Behind The Meter (BTM) business of providing natural gas directly to dedicated power plants connected to data centers. They have in-house expertise developing electricity generation for their liquefaction terminals, so it doesn\u2019t seem like a big departure from their core LNG business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, with the sector under pressure and large data center operators like Coreweave seeing their credit spreads widen, last week wasn\u2019t the best time for VG to make such an announcement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We still think it\u2019s attractively priced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted October 18, 2026 – The World Keeps Buying More American Energy<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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