{"id":218712,"date":"2026-10-09T13:05:45","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T17:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/the-cost-of-disruption\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T09:33:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T09:33:14","slug":"the-cost-of-disruption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/the-cost-of-disruption\/","title":{"rendered":"The Cost of Disruption"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It\u2019s Friday, and stock traders once again would rather be holding long positions before the weekend.&nbsp; If the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) can hold onto this morning\u2019s gains, this would be the 11<sup>th<\/sup> Friday with a higher close of the 14 since the start of the third quarter.<a href=\"#_edn1\" id=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a>&nbsp; Yesterday, we dipped on some inconvenient news reports about AI.&nbsp; Today, we\u2019re getting a broader advance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A long run of upward Fridays is a feature of a market in a powerful uptrend.&nbsp; In skittish markets, weekends are perceived as risky.&nbsp; Plenty of things can go wrong during a two-day weekend.&nbsp; When markets are in rally mode, the bigger short-term risk is perceived as being short, or out of the market.&nbsp; As a result, today\u2019s tide is raising a wide array of stocks and sectors.&nbsp; Only communications and consumer staples stocks are lower.&nbsp; Consumer stocks have been suffering for some time, with today\u2019s modest declines abetted by a weak Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment reading (46.3, down from the prior 48.1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Communications stocks are a more interesting story today.&nbsp; This sector is considered another proxy for the artificial intelligence buildout, since it is dominated by Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL).&nbsp; Each of those companies represents over 20% of the sector\u2019s market capitalization, meaning that the two companies (three share classes) comprise about 45% of the sub-index.&nbsp; It can be easy to forget about the companies that make up the other half.&nbsp; Today, we can\u2019t forget about them, especially the 6<sup>th<\/sup>, 7<sup>th<\/sup>, and 9<sup>th<\/sup> largest components of that sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yesterday, SpaceX (SPCX) announced that it would be buying wireless spectrum that would potentially allow it to compete with established telecom providers.&nbsp; To put it bluntly, that is freaking out investors in the telecom sector.&nbsp; AT&amp;T (T), T-Mobile (TMUS), and Verizon (VZ) are all down by more than 9%, with TMUS down by more than 12%.&nbsp; Though the combination of those three stocks comprises only a bit more than 13% of the sector, their significant declines are sufficient to drag down the sector \u2013 even as META, GOOG, and GOOGL are all modestly higher.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those three telecom stocks, which are quite similarly sized, have a combined market capitalization of just under $500 billion.&nbsp; That is less than one quarter of SPCX\u2019s valuation.&nbsp; Each has lost about $20 billion in market capitalization today, with SPCX increasing by about $27 billion.&nbsp; It is useful to remember that SPCX is not a component of SPX, so the full downside brunt, but none of the upside, of SPCX\u2019s purchase is reflected in the benchmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investors who hold normally boring telecom stocks were clearly blindsided today.&nbsp; All three were already near their lows for the year, with TMUS now touching a new low today.&nbsp; If there is a silver lining to today\u2019s declines, it is that each of those stocks is now yielding more than 3%.&nbsp; In fact, T is flirting with a 5% yield, which is above that of 2-year Treasuries.&nbsp; Severe competition from a new entrant could certainly put pressure on those companies\u2019 ability to maintain the cash flows necessary to sustain their large dividends.&nbsp; The question, of course, is when that pressure might truly disrupt a relatively sleepy sector.&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> Markets were closed on first Friday of Q3 which was July 3<sup>rd<\/sup>, when the Independence Day Holiday was celebrated.&nbsp; Interestingly, SPX was up a mere 0.01 points on Thursday, July 2<sup>nd<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s Friday, and stock traders once again would rather be holding long positions before the weekend.\u00a0 If the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) can hold onto this morning\u2019s gains, this would be the 11th Friday with a higher close of the 14 since the start of the third quarter.[i]\u00a0 Yesterday, we dipped on some inconvenient news reports about AI.\u00a0 Today, we\u2019re getting a broader advance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":218713,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-218712","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the 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