{"id":218519,"date":"2026-10-01T12:58:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T16:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/what-a-weird-september-that-was\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:12:59","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:12:59","slug":"what-a-weird-september-that-was","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-a-weird-september-that-was\/","title":{"rendered":"What a Weird September That Was"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The now-ended third quarter was a weird one, to say the least.\u00a0 If I had told you in advance that interest rates would soar to levels that had not been in over 20 years, I doubt that you would have guessed that major US equity indexes would be unchanged to higher.\u00a0 As we noted recently, however, there are some unpleasant divergences lurking underneath that placid surface.\u00a0 Let\u2019s dive into them and also take a look at market expectations for tomorrow\u2019s employment report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The big news for stock markets was, well, the bond market. &nbsp;Eyes were firmly focused on the likelihood of an FOMC rate hike \u2013 which indeed occurred on September 16<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 but the action was located further out the yield curve.&nbsp; Both 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields rose by more than one-half percent to levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis.&nbsp; A generation of investors has never seen rates this high.&nbsp; The current level of rates would have seemed normal, if not relatively low, during the latter part of the prior century, but the level of indebtedness soared in the post-GFC period.&nbsp; Many of those debts \u2013 public and private \u2013 now need to be refinanced at significantly higher rates, leading to strains in government finances and areas like private credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"541\" height=\"304\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-4.png\" alt=\"comparative table of interest rates across the globe\" class=\"wp-image-218526 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-4.png 541w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-4-300x169.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 541px) 100vw, 541px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 541px; aspect-ratio: 541\/304;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Sources: Interactive Brokers, Bloomberg, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is important to note, though, that the US was only part of a global trend toward higher rates.&nbsp; The table above includes 10-year rates in selected other major economies.&nbsp; The US is neither the best nor the worst in the table above.&nbsp;&nbsp; For the most part, we see similar performances from those countries\u2019 key stock indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Normalized September Performances, SPX (white), NDX (dark blue), Nikkei 225 (red), FTSE 100 (purple), DAX (yellow), Euro Stoxx 50 (light blue)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"492\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-2.png\" alt=\"Normalized September Performances, SPX (white), NDX (dark blue), Nikkei 225 (red), FTSE 100 (purple), DAX (yellow), Euro Stoxx 50 (light blue)\" class=\"wp-image-218523 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2.png 970w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-700x355.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-768x390.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 970px; aspect-ratio: 970\/492;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The demand for funds to enable the buildout of artificial intelligence capacity is undoubtedly raising the price of money \u2013 in other words, interest rates \u2013 but that sector has remained relatively unperturbed by rising rates.&nbsp; That money-hungry sector is far outshining the vast majority of other sectors of the US market.&nbsp;&nbsp; As we pointed out earlier this week, the outperformance of semiconductors and hyperscalers is stark when compared to the equal-weighted S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Midcap, and Small Cap indices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Normalized September Performances, SPX (candles), S&amp;P Midcap 400 (dark blue), S&amp;P 600 Small Cap (red), Equal-Weighted S&amp;P 500 (yellow), Solactive Mag 7 Index (light blue), NDX (orange), SOX (magenta)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"482\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-6.png\" alt=\"Normalized September Performances, SPX (candles), S&amp;P Midcap 400 (dark blue), S&amp;P 600 Small Cap (red), Equal-Weighted S&amp;P 500 (yellow), Solactive Mag 7 Index (light blue), NDX (orange), SOX (magenta)\" class=\"wp-image-218521 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-6.png 970w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-6-700x348.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-6-300x149.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-6-768x382.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 970px; aspect-ratio: 970\/482;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But it\u2019s not just size that delineates the differing performances among various indices.&nbsp; When we compare the growth versus value components of SPX, we see a definite preference for growth.&nbsp; Although SGX, the S&amp;P 500 Growth Index, outperformed SPX by more than SVX, its Value counterpart underperformed it.&nbsp; But remember that the total market capitalization of growth stocks is far larger than that of value stocks.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Normalized September Performances, SPX (red), SGX (white), SVX (blue)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"485\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-3.png\" alt=\"Normalized September Performances, SPX (red), SGX (white), SVX (blue)\" class=\"wp-image-218525 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-3.png 970w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-3-700x350.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-3-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-3-768x384.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 970px; aspect-ratio: 970\/485;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The differentiation is even more stark when we look at September\u2019s performance on a sectoral basis.&nbsp; It\u2019s basically technology and communications (which includes Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) and Meta Platforms (META), among other stocks commonly considered to be tech) up, and everything else \u2013 including energy, in a month when oil prices rose \u2013 down.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>September S&amp;P 500 Sectoral Performances<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"970\" height=\"327\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-5.png\" alt=\"September S&amp;P 500 Sectoral Performances\" class=\"wp-image-218520 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-5.png 970w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-5-700x236.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-5-300x101.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-5-768x259.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 970px) 100vw, 970px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 970px; aspect-ratio: 970\/327;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Bloomberg, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Although we see stocks meandering at lower levels this morning, bonds are not the culprit today.&nbsp; The 2-year yield is 10 basis points lower, while the 10-year yield is down by 5 basis points despite a significant jump in ISM Prices Paid.&nbsp; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/some-good-data-for-quarter-end\/\">Our conclusion yesterday<\/a> aged pretty well today:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>We often think of equity investors being driven by momentum and the desire for window dressing around reporting periods, but so are bond investors.&nbsp; They\u2019re human too, just maybe a bit more pessimistic than their stock market counterparts.&nbsp; If that is the case, we could see an oversold bounce when the calendar turns tomorrow, but that will require some assistance from Friday\u2019s employment report.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Speaking of that August employment report, options traders are pricing in a bit more volatility than usual, but not especially so.&nbsp; For SPX options expiring tomorrow, we see the usual slight upside bias to the peak probability and an at-money daily volatility of just over 1%.&nbsp; Combined with the relatively steep skews that we see in those near-term options, it seems fair to say that traders are wary, but not especially nervous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring October 2<sup>nd<\/sup>, 2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"594\" height=\"244\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image-1.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring October 2nd, 2026\" class=\"wp-image-218524 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1.png 594w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-300x123.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 594px) 100vw, 594px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 594px; aspect-ratio: 594\/244;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Interactive Brokers, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Skews for SPX Options Expiring October 2<sup>nd<\/sup> (top), 9<sup>th<\/sup> (middle), 16<sup>th<\/sup> (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"590\" height=\"316\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/10\/image.png\" alt=\"Skews for SPX Options Expiring October 2nd (top), 9th (middle), 16th (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-218522 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image.png 590w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-300x161.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 590px) 100vw, 590px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 590px; aspect-ratio: 590\/316;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Sources: Interactive Brokers, past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The now-ended third quarter was a weird one, to say the least.\u00a0 If I had told you in advance that interest rates would soar to levels that had not been in over 20 years, I doubt that you would have guessed that major US equity indexes would be unchanged to higher.\u00a0 As we noted recently, however, there are some unpleasant divergences lurking underneath that placid surface.\u00a0 Let\u2019s dive into them and also take a look at market expectations for tomorrow\u2019s employment report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":199344,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[1500,674,4654,4655,367],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":["post-218519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-ai-stocks","tag-interest-rates","tag-market-performance","tag-third-quarter-markets","tag-treasury-yields","contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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have guessed that major US equity indexes would be unchanged to higher.\u00a0 As we noted recently, however, there are some unpleasant divergences lurking underneath that placid surface.\u00a0 Let\u2019s dive into them and also take a look at market expectations for tomorrow\u2019s employment report.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/what-a-weird-september-that-was\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-01T16:58:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-05T13:12:59+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/q3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-a-weird-september-that-was\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/what-a-weird-september-that-was\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": 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