{"id":218508,"date":"2026-10-02T09:11:07","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T09:11:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218508"},"modified":"2026-10-05T13:24:07","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T13:24:07","slug":"72-chance-that-us-unemployment-would-be-steady-or-higher-oct-1-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/72-chance-that-us-unemployment-would-be-steady-or-higher-oct-1-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"72% Chance That US Unemployment Would Be Steady or Higher Oct. 1, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, investors were eager to see how the following day\u2019s &nbsp;US Jobs Friday report depicted hiring momentum, payroll expansion appetites, sectoral performances, paycheck growth and the unemployment rate, which is one of the indicators with the strongest liquidity within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. This means that it\u2019s generally easier for investors to place large trades without compromising on price, as spreads are tighter than the overall average amidst sizeable market-maker bids on both sides. Traders on Thursday assigned a 72% chance that joblessness would hold steady at 4.1% or jump higher, as the 4% \u201cYes\u201d was priced at &nbsp;$0.72. Over and under, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.8% and 4.2% were going for $0.97 and $0.06. Economist perceptions indicated a narrow range of potential outcomes, as the monthly Reuters poll of 69 forecasters on Thursday stood at a median of 4.1% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum entries of 4% and 4.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"422\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-1100x422.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract graph - US Uneployment\" class=\"wp-image-218509 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-1100x422.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-700x268.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-1536x589.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-1-2048x785.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/422;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past Performance is not indicative of future performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u201cYeses\u201d Appeared Cheap For Euro CPI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The median estimate for the Friday release of the Euro Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.6% on Thursday yet the 3.5% \u201cYes\u201d contract was going for just $0.30, which was potentially undervalued in my opinion. Indeed, a CPI number in-line with projections or over on Friday would result in the contract paying $1.00 &nbsp;and this indicator generally has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it doesn\u2019t typically surprise because it\u2019s well telegraphed by economists. But in all fairness, there was a wide range of potential outcomes as of Thursday, as the Reuters poll of 46 forecasters had estimates ranging 3.3% up to a maximum of 3.9%. Other available thresholds in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, such as the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.4% and 3.2%, were being offered at $0.51 and $0.87 on Thursday.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"420\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-1100x420.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract graph - Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices\" class=\"wp-image-218516 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-1100x420.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-700x267.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-768x293.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-1536x587.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/10\/image-2-2048x782.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/420;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past Performance is not indicative of future performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of<a> Oct. 1, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Thursday, investors were eager to see how the following day\u2019s \u00a0US Jobs Friday report depicted hiring momentum, payroll expansion appetites, sectoral performances, paycheck growth and the unemployment rate, which is one of the indicators with the strongest liquidity within Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7,1],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-218508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","category-uncategorized","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>72% Chance That US Unemployment Would Be Steady or Higher Oct. 1, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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