{"id":218469,"date":"2026-09-30T13:23:04","date_gmt":"2026-09-30T13:23:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218469"},"modified":"2026-09-30T16:12:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-30T16:12:07","slug":"core-pce-median-estimate-at-3-3-but-3-2-yes-was-going-for-just-0-42-sept-29-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/core-pce-median-estimate-at-3-3-but-3-2-yes-was-going-for-just-0-42-sept-29-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Core PCE Median Estimate At 3.3%, But 3.2% \u201cYes\u201d Was Going for Just $0.42: Sept. 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge doesn\u2019t typically surprise since consumer and producer gauges are released earlier in the month, providing valuable inputs that flow directly into the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Meanwhile, on Tuesday, forecaster<ins>s<\/ins> expected the PCE <del>&nbsp;<\/del>core version of the indicator, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, to land at 3.3% when published the following day. It would be the third consecutive month at that level. It was unlikely, in my view as of Tuesday, that it would decelerate, as overall cost pressures have caught fresh momentum from elevated fuel costs, and for that reason, on Tuesday I believed the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 3.2% threshold was potentially undervalued at just $0.42 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, as it would pay a dollar back on a number in-line with projections or higher. In a Reuters poll of 47 forecasters, the minimum and maximum expectations as of Tuesday were 3.1% and 3.4%, indicating an unusually wide range of potential outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Core PCE Index and Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract\" class=\"wp-image-218470 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-50-2048x772.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Overall Inflation Expected at 3.7%<\/strong><\/em><em>Also on Tuesday, the overall PCE price index was expected to be 3.7%, which would also mark an unchanged annualized increase for the third consecutive month. Because it includes food and energy, it has been higher than the core version, as fuel has been the predominant factor propelling inflationary pressures. Similarly, in the Reuters poll of 40 forecasters, a minimum of 3.4% coincided with a maximum of 3.9%, indicating a greater than typical chance of surprise. In the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.6% and <del>at <\/del>4% were going for $0.92 and $0.03, respectively, on Tuesday<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"426\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-1100x426.png\" alt=\"PCE Index and Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract\" class=\"wp-image-218471 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-1100x426.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-700x271.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-300x116.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-768x297.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-1536x595.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-51-2048x793.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/426;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 29, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge doesn\u2019t typically surprise since consumer and producer gauges are released earlier in the month, providing valuable inputs that flow directly into the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218472,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-218469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Core PCE Median Estimate At 3.3%, But 3.2% \u201cYes\u201d Was Going for Just $0.42: Sept. 29, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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