{"id":218422,"date":"2026-09-28T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-28T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/why-todays-nasdaq-doesnt-look-like-2000-even-with-ai-fears-rising\/"},"modified":"2026-09-29T11:47:30","modified_gmt":"2026-09-29T11:47:30","slug":"why-todays-nasdaq-doesnt-look-like-2000-even-with-ai-fears-rising","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-todays-nasdaq-doesnt-look-like-2000-even-with-ai-fears-rising\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Today\u2019s Nasdaq Doesn\u2019t Look Like 2000, Even with AI Fears Rising"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Last week I was in Los Angeles at the All-In Summit along with about 4,000 others, including tech investors, money managers and entrepreneurs. The ticket wasn\u2019t cheap, but it was well worth it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I was in the room when Jensen Huang, in the middle of a panel, took a call from President Trump and put him on speaker so the whole audience could hear. \u201cThe robots will not be taking over,\u201d the president told the NVIDIA chief. \u201cThe AI will not be taking over the rest of the world. The whole thing is a hoax.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That was Monday. Over that same weekend, AI-linked stocks fell worldwide after leaders of the biggest AI labs warned about the risks of their own technology. Chip stocks dropped nearly 6% in a single session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So which is it? A hoax? Or an existential threat?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Warnings Are Coming from Inside the Building<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Anthropic\u2019s Dario Amodei, who\u2019s written that AI could cure most major diseases within a decade, published an essay last week arguing that, in his words, we must pace the frontier.<\/a> In a separate post, OpenAI\u2019s chief scientist, Jakub Pachocki, wrote that this moment calls for extreme caution<\/a> and that he doubts anyone is prepared for what\u2019s coming. OpenAI then published a framework for disclosing when its own models misbehave, along with six recent examples.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One Anthropic researcher quit outright,<\/a> walking away two months before his equity vested. As he put it, he no longer has anything to gain from the company\u2019s valuation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Say what you will about his conclusions. Giving up your shares in a red-hot company that\u2019s expected to list next year is a costly way to make a point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those unfamiliar, all of this was set off by the Hugging Face hack in July. According to the official report of the incident,<\/a> as many as 1,200 AI agents, which were supposed to be isolated from one another, found a way to communicate on an unsanctioned message board and exchanged more than 70,000 messages. Seven hundred of them joined the attack on a target they were never asked to touch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hollywood Has Been Training Us for This<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If your mental picture of a rogue AI comes from the movies, you\u2019re in good company. In 2023\u2019s Mission: Impossible \u2013 Dead Reckoning<\/em> and last year\u2019s The Final Reckoning,<\/em> Tom Cruise spends five hours of screen time chasing a self-aware AI called the Entity, which infiltrates the world\u2019s intelligence networks and eventually gets its hands on most of the planet\u2019s nuclear arsenal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Before the Entity, we had HAL 9000 turning on its crew and Skynet launching the missiles itself. Hollywood has been training us for this moment for almost 60 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Believe it or not, what actually happened at Hugging Face was stranger and more mundane. There were no nuclear codes, just a swarm of ordinary work software that found a back channel and decided helping each other mattered more than the rules.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Y2K Could Teach AI Investors<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Many of you reading this probably remember Y2K. If you recall, the fear was very real for a lot of people. Older systems really did store years in two digits, and companies spent billions rewriting code before the deadline. When January 1, 2000, finally rolled around, planes stayed in the air and the lights stayed on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now look at what the market did. The Nasdaq Composite rose 86% in 1999, straight through peak Y2K anxiety. After the bug fizzled, the tech-heavy index climbed another 24% to its March 2000 peak. Then it fell 72% over the next 18 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The catastrophe everyone feared never materialized.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What ruined investors was the price they paid. Today the Nasdaq-100 trades at about 20.7 times forward earnings, right at its 25-year median. In the spring of 2001, a full year after the crash began, it still traded above 70 times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, I don\u2019t believe this is 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Americans Keep Using the Thing They Say Scares Them<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Despite the doomsday headlines, ordinary Americans continue to use the technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Near-daily AI use among U.S. adults more than doubled in six months,<\/a> from 8% to 19%. A new Just Capital survey finds 57% of Americans say AI helps them at work,<\/a> against just 9% who say it hurts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to UBS, roughly two-thirds of compute demand comes from inference, which means actually running AI services for customers, not training new frontier models. Inference grows with adoption. UBS kept its 2027 capex forecast at $1.2 trillion, a 33% increase, and noted token volumes are up about 176% since the end of June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Big Tech Used to Hand Money Back. Now It\u2019s Raising It<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re looking for AI\u2019s real risk, I don\u2019t believe it\u2019s in the headlines. It\u2019s on the balance sheet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2018, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta together spent about $0.42 of every operating dollar on capital projects. Over the past year, they spent $0.77. Their combined free cash flow is now roughly zero, according to Bloomberg data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Big<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For years, these companies funded everything from cash and handed the rest back to shareholders, repurchasing some $635 billion in stock between 2018 and 2024 while paying down debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, that\u2019s flipped. Over the last 12 months, they took on $194 billion in net new debt, and buybacks fell by half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In June, Alphabet raised nearly $50 billion in stock and mandatory convertible preferred, explicitly including capital spending to scale AI infrastructure. That preferred pays 6.25%, more than the 10-year Treasury.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Big<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are enormously profitable companies, not the debt-soaked telecom firms of 1999. Alphabet holds more than $240 billion in cash and securities. But after the Federal Reserve\u2019s decision this week, borrowed money costs more than it did last week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Compute Is a Multiplier<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

I wrote on X last week that compute is not the end product of electricity.<\/a> It\u2019s a multiplier, and the industry needs to get much better at showing people where that multiplier ends up. In schools, wages, businesses and communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of it is already visible. Private data center construction is running at an annual rate of $75.2 billion, up from $13.9 billion when ChatGPT launched at the end of 2022. Google Cloud revenue grew 82% last quarter to $24.8 billion, with operating income more than tripling. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says the U.S. share of global computing power will rise from about 60% to 80% by 2028.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"America's<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve said for years that headlines make a terrible investment thesis, but capital flows rarely lie. The flows still point in one direction. What\u2019s changed is that more of them are financed now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m taking the AI safety debate seriously but reading the balance sheets even more seriously.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted September 21, 2026 – Why Today\u2019s Nasdaq Doesn\u2019t Look Like 2000, Even with AI Fears Rising<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n


All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this\/these website(s) and is not responsible for its\/their content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite is a stock market index that tracks nearly all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The Nasdaq-100 is a stock market index that tracks 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forward P\/E (price-to-earnings) ratio is a financial metric that divides a company\u2019s current stock price by its estimated earnings per share (EPS) over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (06\/30\/2026): NVIDIA Corp., Amazon.com Inc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I was in the room when Jensen Huang, in the middle of a panel, took a call from President Trump and put him on speaker so the whole audience could hear. \u201cThe robots will not be taking over,\u201d the president told the NVIDIA chief. \u201cThe AI will not be taking over the rest of the world. The whole thing is a hoax.\u201d<\/p>\n

That was Monday. Over that same weekend, AI-linked stocks fell worldwide after leaders of the biggest AI labs warned about the risks of their own technology. Chip stocks dropped nearly 6% in a single session.<\/p>\n

So which is it? A hoax? Or an existential threat?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":212320,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[224],"class_list":["post-218422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-us-global-investors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Today\u2019s Nasdaq Doesn\u2019t Look Like 2000, Even with AI Fears Rising<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I was in the room when Jensen Huang, in the middle of a panel, took a call from President Trump and put him on speaker so the whole audience could hear....\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218422\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Today\u2019s Nasdaq Doesn\u2019t Look Like 2000, Even with AI Fears Rising\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I was in the room when Jensen Huang, in the middle of a panel, took a call from President Trump and put him on speaker so the whole audience could hear. \u201cThe robots will not be taking over,\u201d the president told the NVIDIA chief. \u201cThe AI will not be taking over the rest of the world. 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