{"id":218362,"date":"2026-09-25T14:39:18","date_gmt":"2026-09-25T14:39:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218362"},"modified":"2026-09-28T13:49:31","modified_gmt":"2026-09-28T13:49:31","slug":"the-umich-sentiment-46-threshold-yes-was-at-0-53-after-initial-report-was-47-6-sept-24-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-umich-sentiment-46-threshold-yes-was-at-0-53-after-initial-report-was-47-6-sept-24-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The UMich Sentiment 46 Threshold \u201cYes\u201d Was at $0.53 After Initial Report Was 47.6: Sept. 24, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index was at $0.53 on Thursday. The initial US sentiment report, which was released approximately two weeks ago, was at 47.6. Meanwhile, revisions have historically ranged between + 1 and \u2013 1, and a significant downward adjustment of 1.6 was needed for the \u201cYes\u201d contract to lose. Elsewhere, the \u201cYeses\u201d corresponding to the 44, 48, 50 and 52 thresholds for the Friday, Sept. 25, release were going for $0.93, $0.27, $0.15 and $0.03 on Thursday. Finally, we\u2019re nearing record lows on this indicator, with May\u2019s figure coming in at the worst ever level of 44.8, as pain at the pump, elevated interest rates, affordability pressures and geopolitical uncertainty have negatively affected US household moods for most of the year.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market contract line chart - US Consumer sentiment\" class=\"wp-image-218363 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-41.png 1758w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 24, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index was at $0.53 on Thursday. 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Sept. 24, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218362\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The UMich Sentiment 46 Threshold \u201cYes\u201d Was at $0.53 After Initial Report Was 47.6: Sept. 24, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 46 threshold for the University of Michigan Sentiment Index was at $0.53 on Thursday.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-umich-sentiment-46-threshold-yes-was-at-0-53-after-initial-report-was-47-6-sept-24-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta 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