{"id":218247,"date":"2026-09-24T08:36:51","date_gmt":"2026-09-24T08:36:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218247"},"modified":"2026-09-24T12:11:53","modified_gmt":"2026-09-24T12:11:53","slug":"new-home-sales-600k-no-contracts-were-priced-at-0-20-sept-23-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/new-home-sales-600k-no-contracts-were-priced-at-0-20-sept-23-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"New Home Sales 600K \u201cNo\u201d Contracts Were Priced at $0.20: Sept. 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Thursday released of the August US New Home Sales report was expected to show activity recovering from July\u2019s 607k, as the \u201cNo\u201d Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold was priced at just $0.20 on Wednesday. The Reuters poll of 43 forecasters as of Wednesday also anticipated a rebound, as the consensus was 615k against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 575k and 666k. But recent indicators have shown a great deal of real estate weakness because elevated mortgage rates alongside lofty valuations have worsened a significant affordability problem. And due to the softening trends, on Wednesday, I believed a number under the 600k threshold was likely. That would be the weakest figure since January\u2019s 576k. Furthermore, the \u201cNo\u201d at 600k was undervalued in my view, as it should have been priced closer to $0.40. Meanwhile, the \u201cNo\u201d at 650k was going for $0.82. Separately, the median sales price was projected to land right around $400k, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $390k, $400k and $410k were at $0.83, $0.51 and $0.30 for that distinct contract in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"413\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-1100x413.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract prices line chart - New Home Sales.\" class=\"wp-image-218248 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-1100x413.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-768x288.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-1536x576.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-37-2048x768.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/413;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"417\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-1100x417.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract prices line chart - median new home Sales price\" class=\"wp-image-218249 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-1100x417.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-1536x582.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-39-2048x776.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/417;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Initial Unemployment Claims Expected Around 200K<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Also on Wednesday, initial unemployment claims were expected to remain suppressed as layoff appetites are low and economic growth is buoyant, warranting headcount increases rather than declines. After coming in at 196k last week, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets on Wednesday were pricing in the at least \u201cYeses\u201d at 190k, 195k, 200k, 205k and 210k at $0.89, $0.58, $0.50, $0.16 and $0.03. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 36 forecasters stands at a median of 201k, amidst minimum and maximum projections of 185k and 250k. Indeed, someone is anticipated a substantial increase to a level we haven\u2019t touched in over a year.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract prices line chart - US Initial Jobless Claims\" class=\"wp-image-218250 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-1536x580.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-40-2048x774.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 23, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. <strong>For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Thursday released of the August US New Home Sales report was expected to show activity recovering from July\u2019s 607k, as the \u201cNo\u201d Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets contract with a 600k threshold was priced at just $0.20 on Wednesday.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218251,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-218247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>New Home Sales 600K \u201cNo\u201d Contracts Were Priced at $0.20: Sept. 23, 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