{"id":218111,"date":"2026-09-18T11:13:42","date_gmt":"2026-09-18T11:13:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218111"},"modified":"2026-09-21T13:06:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T13:06:49","slug":"the-1-yes-on-us-industrial-production-was-priced-at-0-63-sept-17-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/the-1-yes-on-us-industrial-production-was-priced-at-0-63-sept-17-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"The 1% \u201cYes\u201d on US Industrial Production Was Priced at $0.63: Sept. 17, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The consensus expectation as of Thursday projected that US industrial production would expand 1.7% year over year in the following day\u2019s August update; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets priced the 1% \u201cYes\u201d at only $0.63 despite the path to a number at or below 1% being exceptionally narrow, in my opinion. Indeed, in a Reuters poll of 47 forecasters, the minimum and maximum estimates were 1.4% and 2.2%, as none of the economists entered a figure of 1.3% or under, indicating that the participants generally agree with the subdued likelihood of the 1% \u201cYes\u201d losing money. Elsewhere, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 0% and at 2% were priced at $0.95 and $0.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34-1100x414.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract line chart of US Industrial Production prices.\" class=\"wp-image-218112 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34-1100x414.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-34.png 1410w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future performance.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 17, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/interactivebrokers2-my.sharepoint.com\/personal\/tleswing_interactivebrokers_com\/Documents\/September%20Daily%20Commentaries\/September%2017%20Forecast%20Trader\/IBKR%20Econ%20Commentary%209-17-26%20(ind%20prod)%20-ForecastEx.docx\">here<\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. <strong>For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The consensus expectation as of Thursday projected that US industrial production would expand 1.7% year over year in the following day\u2019s August update; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets priced the 1% \u201cYes\u201d at only $0.63 despite the path to a number at or below 1% being exceptionally narrow, in my opinion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218114,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-218111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The 1% \u201cYes\u201d on US Industrial Production Was Priced at $0.63: Sept. 17, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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