{"id":218032,"date":"2026-09-16T11:11:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T11:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=218032"},"modified":"2026-09-17T15:33:06","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T15:33:06","slug":"probability-of-a-fed-hit-87-day-before-decision-sept-15-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/probability-of-a-fed-hit-87-day-before-decision-sept-15-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability of a Fed Hit 87% Day Before Decision: Sept. 15, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve was expected to hike its key interest rate during its meeting the following day. It would be the first increase in over three years, as the Middle East conflict has lifted inflationary pressures far above the central bank\u2019s 2% target. Investors earlier this month were on the fence about an increase, but a blockbuster nonfarm payrolls print and a stronger-than-projected Producer Price Index topped off with a hotter-than-expected Core Consumer Price Index result meaningfully strengthened the case for a lift. Indeed, on Tuesday, it appeared that buoyant hiring and elevated cost forces were likely to force the monetary policy institution\u2019s hand, a few short weeks after reporters were asking in the post-decision July presser what the committee was waiting for to heighten its benchmark yield. Probabilities had taken a dramatic turn since late August, when odds of a raise stood at just 30% prior to the trio of fiery publications that pushed the chance of a Fed hike to 87%, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets as of Tuesday Morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"419\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-1100x419.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract Line Chart - Fed Decision.\" class=\"wp-image-218033 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-1100x419.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-700x266.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-768x292.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-1536x585.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-30-2048x780.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/419;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>US Retail Sales Recovery Was Expected<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Retail sales on Tuesday were expected to recover from their steepest decline in over one year in July. Indeed, the -0.6% month-over-month contraction reported in the previous print was expected to reverse to a 0.8% gain in August\u2019s update, according to the monthly Reuters poll of 53 forecasters. But the distribution of anticipated outcomes as of Tuesday was particularly wide for the following day\u2019s release, with the minimum and maximum projections standing at 0.2% and 1.1%. The broad range can be explained by the fact that this indicator has an elevated deviation rate, which points to its outsized potential to vary from the consensus more often and in a sharper manner than the most other gauges. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, priced the \u201cYes\u201d contracts with thresholds of -0.5%, 0% and 0.5% at $0.91, $0.83 and $0.57 on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-1100x414.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract Line Chart - YS Retail Sales Monthly.\" class=\"wp-image-218034 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-1100x414.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-31-2048x772.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>September 15, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve was expected to hike its key interest rate during its meeting the following day. It would be the first increase in over three years, as the Middle East conflict has lifted inflationary pressures far above the central bank\u2019s 2% target. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":218035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-218032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Probability of a Fed Hit 87% Day Before Decision: Sept. 15, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/218032\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Probability of a Fed Hit 87% Day Before Decision: Sept. 15, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On Tuesday, the US Federal Reserve was expected to hike its key interest rate during its meeting the following day. 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