{"id":217888,"date":"2026-09-11T11:55:35","date_gmt":"2026-09-11T11:55:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=217888"},"modified":"2026-09-11T12:03:28","modified_gmt":"2026-09-11T12:03:28","slug":"a-20-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-existed-on-thursday-sept-10-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-20-chance-of-a-hotter-than-expected-cpi-existed-on-thursday-sept-10-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"A 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Existed on Thursday: Sept. 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, the following day\u2019s release of the pivotal US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to have an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets signaled just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 3.4% threshold was going for $0.20, but I believed it was undervalued. The distribution of economist expectations agreed, as the Reuters poll of 53 forecasters carried an upside bias, with the median estimate at 3.4% amidst minimum and maximum projections at 3.3% and 3.8%, indicating a belief that a loftier print was more likely than a lower result. Over and under, however, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.2%, 3.3%, and 3.5% were at $0.90, $0.63, and $0.07.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"417\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-1100x417.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market contract line chart - US Consumer Price Index Yearly\" class=\"wp-image-217889 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-1100x417.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13-1536x582.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-13.png 1549w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/417;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Consider The 0.2% \u201cYes\u201d on The Core CPI<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics and was scheduled for a Friday release, was expected to be 0.2% month over month on Thursday, yet participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market priced the \u201cYes\u201d contract with that threshold at only $0.25. Similar to the example above, I believed on Thursday that it should have been closer to $0.40, as the Reuters poll of 67 forecasters saw a path to 0.3%. Indeed, the minimum and maximum estimates were 0.1% and 0.3% and those \u201cYeses\u201d were going for $0.87 and $0.03 on Thursday. The y\/y version of the indicator offered a comparable opportunity, as the \u201cYes\u201d at the consensus expectation of 2.4% was priced at only $0.19, while the 2.2% and 2.6% thresholds were at $0.93 and $0.06.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"417\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-1100x417.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market contract line chart - CPI Core\" class=\"wp-image-217890 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-1100x417.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14-1536x583.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-14.png 1669w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/417;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-1100x414.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market contract line chart - US CPI Core\" class=\"wp-image-217891 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-1100x414.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15-1536x578.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-15.png 1663w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>UMich Sentiment Expected To Retreat Slightly<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Friday release of the University of Michigan (UMich) Consumer Sentiment Index was expected on Thursday to reflect a slight decline, because elevated inflation, rising interest rates and stock market volatility likely weighed on household moods. The Reuters poll consisting of 34 forecasters collectively predicted a drop from 51.7 to 51, amidst minimum and maximum expectations of 49 and 52.5. The Interactive Brokers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/626425618\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX\">Prediction Markets<\/a> contracts, which settle on the release of the final numbers on Sept. 25, offered the 44, 46, 48 and 50 \u201cYeses\u201d at $0.92, $0.72, $0.59 and $0.47 as of Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market contract line chart - US Consumer Sentiment\" class=\"wp-image-217892 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/09\/image-17.png 1581w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>Sept. 10, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx<strong><u> <\/u><\/strong><\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. <strong>For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts.&nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p> US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to have an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets signaled just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d contract with a 3.4% threshold was going for $0.20, but I believed it was undervalued.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":217893,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-217888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Existed on Thursday: Sept. 10, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/217888\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A 20% Chance of A Hotter-Than-Expected CPI Existed on Thursday: Sept. 10, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"US Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to have an unchanged 3.4% year over year (y\/y) rate, and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets signaled just a 20% chance of a hotter-than-anticipated reading. 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