{"id":217840,"date":"2026-09-10T09:55:03","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T09:55:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=217840"},"modified":"2026-09-10T10:08:57","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T10:08:57","slug":"ecb-was-expected-to-hike-for-second-time-in-2026-with-a-98-degree-of-certainty-sept-9-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ecb-was-expected-to-hike-for-second-time-in-2026-with-a-98-degree-of-certainty-sept-9-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Was Expected to Hike for Second Time in 2026 With a 98% Degree of Certainty: Sept. 9, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets participants believed that the following day would feature the European Central Bank (ECB) lifting its key interest rate. It would be the second increase of 2026 and a response to above-target inflation. Indeed, cost forces accelerated to 3.3% in August, their fastest pace in three years. The re-escalation in Middle East hostilities has meaningfully raised energy prices, and since the continent imports its oil and natural gas, it\u2019s especially vulnerable to an uptick in fuel charges. For this reason, the 2.4% \u201cYes\u201d contract was going for $0.98 in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets on Wednesday, as the consensus firmly believed in a 25-basis point (bp) hike that will land the benchmark yield at 2.65%. But the chance of an outsized 50-bp increase on Wednesday wasn\u2019t in the cards, as the 2.65% \u201cYes\u201d was priced at just $0.02.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

August CPI Prelim Signals 125.85<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

August\u2019s preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Germany, released on the first of the month, came in at 125.85 and can be used to guide trades in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. The \u201cYes\u201d at 125.5 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 126 for the Thursday revision was priced at $0.96 and $0.91 on Wednesday,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Existing US Home Sales Expected at 3.98 Million<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Existing home sales are expected to have declined to 3.98 million in August as the recent surge in oil prices has driven up mortgage rates and hampered affordability in the residential real estate sector. Such a result would mark the third month in 2026 of a number beneath a 4-handle. Against this backdrop, the \u201cNo\u201d at the 4 million threshold in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Wednesday was priced at $0.52. Meanwhile, the Reuters poll consisting of 41 forecasters carried minimum and maximum projections of 3.9 million and 4.08 million, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Interactive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 9, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em>here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd. For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to clients categorized as Professional Clients under MiFID II. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade Forecast Contracts. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The re-escalation in Middle East hostilities has meaningfully raised energy prices, and since the continent imports its oil and natural gas, it\u2019s especially vulnerable to an uptick in fuel charges.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":217844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[],"class_list":["post-217840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nECB Was Expected to Hike for Second Time in 2026 With a 98% Degree of Certainty: Sept. 9, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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