{"id":217739,"date":"2026-09-04T11:15:02","date_gmt":"2026-09-04T15:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/energy-markets-remain-tight\/"},"modified":"2026-09-08T08:57:19","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T08:57:19","slug":"energy-markets-remain-tight","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/energy-markets-remain-tight\/","title":{"rendered":"Energy Markets Remain Tight"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the United Arab Emirates, they\u2019ve started building metal cages to protect vital energy infrastructure from Iranian drone attacks. It\u2019s probably inspired by the netting that Ukraine has been erecting over streets to protect its population from drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a sign of the impact AI is having on how we use the internet, AI-generated images of the UAE cages proliferate. They range from highly credible to dystopian. The image shown here is, we believe, a real one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russia has also started protecting its oil facilities with netting or other low-tech material to impede drones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"depictive<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Like Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, the Iran War is drifting into a stalemate. Every week that passes with limited egress through the Strait of Hormuz serves to strengthen the market position of America\u2019s oil and gas exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strongest evidence of the war\u2019s limited impact is the price of crude oil, which has confounded many forecasters by remaining stubbornly below $100 and less than $15 above its pre-war level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"nymex<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"diesel<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crude oil is the only hydrocarbon product signaling equanimity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Refined products such as jet fuel and diesel have remained elevated because of reduced global refining capacity. Ukraine\u2019s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have stopped their diesel exports, driving refining margins for others to a record high. The EIA reports that US stocks of Distillate Fuel Oil (almost all diesel) are close to the lowest in over a decade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Middle East refineries have reduced output of many products including diesel and jet fuel because of Iranian attacks on shipping. RBN Energy<\/a> reports that global refinery runs were down by 5.1 Million Barrels per Day in 2Q26 compared with the prior year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"weekly<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"jet<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ongoing maritime disruption has also hurt Qatar\u2019s exports of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), which are reportedly<\/a> down 96%. They\u2019ve managed 18 shipments since the war began compared with 509 over the same period last year. It\u2019s why the European and Asian LNG benchmarks are the highest they\u2019ve been since the conflict began, unlike crude oil.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global LNG prices are now more than double their pre-war level. Europe\u2019s inventories are also lower than usual for this time of year, partly because they held back on pricing in recent weeks which shifted flows to Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"global<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It seems unlikely Qatar will return to previous volumes of LNG shipments anytime soon. Both the US and Iran seem content to wait for the other side to offer concessions. Trump may regard the mid-terms as a logical decision point, and could adopt a tougher stance after that with little near term political risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, the prospects for Cheniere, Venture Global and NextDecade are the best they\u2019ve been in living memory. Yet the stocks remain cheaper than they were in March, when the conflict was in its opening stages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"eu<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last week I noted that few Republicans I talk to regard the decision to attack Iran as a success. Then a client I\u2019ve known for almost twenty years and whose opinion I respect, provided an alternative perspective. He noted that together with Israel we have substantially degraded Iran\u2019s military, killed enough leaders that the new cohort can never feel safe, removed any imminent nuclear threat, decimated their economy and seen their neighbors further align with us due to Iranian attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve done all this with minimal US casualties and only a modest jump in crude. The continued closure of the Strait was not anticipated, but there has been limited negative impact on the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That doesn\u2019t seem too bad \u2013 and it\u2019s boosted the prospects for US energy exporters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"us<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, the midstream industry has pivoted towards more modest projects with less execution risk. The shale boom of 2014-18 produced mixed results for investors. Then Covid briefly hit energy consumption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Legal and regulatory impediments followed with the Biden administration, most famously with the chronically late and over budget Mountain Valley Pipeline which only crossed the finish line when West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin insisted on legislation to smooth its passage in exchange for supporting an increase in the debt ceiling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The liquids pipelines added since 2025 in the EIA chart were all either within Texas or were expansions of existing pipelines which are generally harder to challenge in court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"gas<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results <\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have been some bigger projects to move natural gas<\/a> \u2013 notably improving takeaway capacity from the Permian Waha hub in west Texas where gas has at times traded at a negative price because of too much of it chasing limited pipeline capacity. That problem is now largely fixed, enabling more gas to power data centers and feed LNG export terminals on the Gulf coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Midstream\u2019s approach to capex is very different than a decade ago. Projects are de-risked, generally smaller and have more predictable cashflows. Boring is good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted August 30, 2026 – Energy Markets Remain Tight<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Important Disclosures<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Past performance of the American Energy Independence Index is not indicative of future returns.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the United Arab Emirates, they\u2019ve started building metal cages to protect vital energy infrastructure from Iranian drone attacks. 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