{"id":217514,"date":"2026-08-28T10:05:21","date_gmt":"2026-08-28T14:05:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T09:09:17","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T09:09:17","slug":"its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cIt\u2019s Not the Same Dollar\u201d: The Big Lie Behind the Stock Market Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">After the stellar 2010s, the bond market performance has been disappointing in the 2020s. According to technical analyst&nbsp;<strong>Francis Hunt<\/strong>, this post-2020 rout marks the end of a 40-year debt bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In his view, sovereigns and large institutions are increasingly forced to preserve capital in hard assets rather than chase paper gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-debt-cycle-is-rolling-over\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Debt Cycle Is Rolling Over<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Hunt, the global financial system has moved past the easy-money era that began in the early 1980s. Since the 2020 bond-market capitulation, he argues in a recent&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Wm6bLIo8cX4\">interview<\/a>, yields have entered a structural reversal marked by &#8220;ever lower highs and ever lower lows&#8221; in debt prices and an eventual nominal devaluation of the instruments themselves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the shift has, in his opinion, changed how investors should read headline gains in equities and other risk assets. What looks like growth in index levels is, in large part, the denominator effect of weakening fiat purchasing power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;It\u2019s not the same dollar anymore,&#8221; he remarked. In such an environment, nominal wealth expands, while real wealth contracts. For Hunt, that dynamic makes gold the pressure valve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8220;The debt crisis is the turbo juice for gold,&#8221; he remarked, arguing that capital starts prioritizing preservation over return. Investors stop asking what can compound the fastest, and start asking what can\u2019t be printed, diluted, or blocked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-hotel-california-liquidity-regime\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The &#8220;Hotel California&#8221; Liquidity Regime<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The treasury market, in Hunt\u2019s view, is a one-way architecture \u2013 an easy entry, but constrained exit. &#8220;You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave,&#8221; he said, recalling the evergreen lyrics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of outright liquidation, creditors are pushed toward swap lines, repo facilities and borrowing against the collateral they already own. That creates what Hunt sees as a manufactured asymmetry: buyers are welcome, sellers are constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He cites U.K.\u2019s 2022 liability-driven crisis, strains at the California State Teachers\u2019 Retirement System, and recent pressure on Gulf states in the aftermath of an Iran war. In each case, the system responded by constraining liquidation and extending liquidity against pledged assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-japan-as-the-pressure-point\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Japan as the Pressure Point<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet Japan might be the most important test case. With over $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, it\u2019s large enough to matter and constrained enough to be trapped.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rather than selling freely, he said, Japanese holders are effectively offered&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/Opinion\/26\/08\/61080332\/us-japan-yen-intervention-signals-bond-market-fear\">limited borrowing capacity<\/a>&nbsp;against their bonds \u2014 &#8220;at the moment we\u2019re allowing 60 billion,&#8221; he said, pointing at the discrepancy compared to the size of the stockpile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A deeper rupture, he warns, could force a violent unwind in the carry trade. It would drag the capital out of global risk assets and push Treasury yields higher- something the US cannot afford.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That scenario would invert the standard textbook logic where higher yields attract durable inflows. In sovereign stress, Hunt says, yield can look less like reward and more like risk premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-gold-in-the-real-denominator\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gold in the Real Denominator<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hunt\u2019s chart work centers on measuring equities against gold rather than against the dollar. In that frame, he says, U.S. stocks peaked in 1999, staged a secondary high in 2021 and now look vulnerable to a longer secular reset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted August 28, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/bonds\/26\/08\/61489604\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\">\u201cIt\u2019s Not the Same Dollar\u201d: The Big Lie Behind the Stock Market Rally<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After the stellar 2010s, the bond market performance has been disappointing in the 2020s. According to technical analyst Francis Hunt, this post-2020 rout marks the end of a 40-year debt bull market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1795,"featured_media":217516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[147,8,12,153,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[407],"class_list":["post-217514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-stocks","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-benzinga"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cIt\u2019s Not the Same Dollar\u201d: The Big Lie Behind the Stock Market Rally<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After the stellar 2010s, the bond market performance has been disappointing in the 2020s. 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According to technical analyst Francis Hunt, this post-2020 rout marks the end of a 40-year debt bull market.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-28T14:05:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-03T09:09:17+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/fading_dollar_featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Stjepan Kalinic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Stjepan Kalinic\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Stjepan Kalinic\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/ad8ab9d4ae0b5828e242bace11f511f3\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"\u201cIt\u2019s Not the Same Dollar\u201d: The Big Lie Behind the Stock Market Rally\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-08-28T14:05:21+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-09-03T09:09:17+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 553,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/fading_dollar_featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Stocks\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/stocks\\\/its-not-the-same-dollar-the-big-lie-behind-the-stock-market-rally\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"\u201cIt\u2019s Not the Same Dollar\u201d: The Big Lie Behind the Stock Market Rally - 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