{"id":217320,"date":"2026-08-26T14:00:45","date_gmt":"2026-08-26T14:00:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=217320"},"modified":"2026-09-08T08:47:43","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T08:47:43","slug":"a-43-chance-existed-for-us-pce-to-beat-3-6-expectation-aug-25-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/a-43-chance-existed-for-us-pce-to-beat-3-6-expectation-aug-25-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"A 43% Chance Existed for US PCE to Beat 3.6% Expectation: Aug. 25, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Tuesday, there was a 43% chance that the subsequent day\u2019s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index would beat expectations, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. The 3.6% \u201cYes\u201d was going for $0.43 for this well telegraphed indicator, which is the median estimate, while the 34 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll ranged from a low of 3.5% to a high of 3.7%, indicating a narrow set of potential outcomes. The reason this gauge generally fails to surprise is that consumer and producer inflation gauges are released earlier in the month and provide critical inputs for this headline number. The anticipated deceleration came after June\u2019s figure was slightly higher at 3.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"416\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-1100x416.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract - Personal Consumption Expenditure price index line chart\" class=\"wp-image-217321 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-1100x416.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-1536x581.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-11-2048x775.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/416;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Similar Story With Core<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The core US PCE price index was similar. This is the version of the gauge that excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics. But while there was no threshold at the median estimate of 3.3%, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3.2% and 3.4% on Tuesday were going for $0.84 and $0.12. Meanwhile of the 40 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll, most entered 3.3%, some thought 3.2%, but there was no projection of 3.1% or 3.4%, also reflecting a narrow range of potential outcomes. This metric was anticipated to be unchanged from June\u2019s 3.3%.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract - US Core PCE price index , line chart\" class=\"wp-image-217322 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-12-2048x772.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>The Corporate Profit \u201cYes\u201d at -1.8%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Periods of expanding economic performance, like the one we&#8217;re in now, almost always generate positive corporate profit numbers, which is why on Tuesday I believed the -1.8% \u201cYes\u201d was potentially undervalued at just $0.63 within the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets. Above there, the \u201cYes\u201d at 2.2% cost $0.12 for the Wednesday release.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"413\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-1100x413.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract - US Corporate Profits, line chart.\" class=\"wp-image-217323 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-1100x413.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-768x288.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-1536x577.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-15-2048x769.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/413;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>August 25, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited, Forecast Contracts are only available to MiFID Professionals. Clients of Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited who are residents of Belgium are not eligible to trade prediction market contracts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Tuesday, there was a 43% chance that the subsequent day\u2019s release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index would beat expectations, according to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":217324,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-217320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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