{"id":216917,"date":"2026-08-20T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-20T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\/"},"modified":"2026-08-21T11:33:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-21T11:33:24","slug":"why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019ve said it before, and I\u2019ll say it again: it\u2019s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I bring this up because we\u2019re a little under 80 days from another midterm election. The S&amp;P 500 closed at an all-time high last Thursday and is up more than 13% for the year. But between now and November 3 sits the stretch of the calendar many investors like least.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I pulled up six decades of market data to see what that stretch has actually looked like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-september-has-earned-its-reputation-as-the-worst-month\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>September Has Earned Its Reputation as the Worst Month<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using data going back to 1960, I found that September is the&nbsp;<em>only<\/em>&nbsp;one month that has had a negative average price return over multiple time periods. Over the long term, it\u2019s been down 0.76% on average, and over the short term, it\u2019s been down 1.34%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/08\/COMM-sept-strong-0817206.png\" alt=\"September Remains the Market&apos;s Toughest Month\" class=\"wp-image-216919 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What\u2019s interesting about September is that it\u2019s not usually a down month. Since 1960, it\u2019s finished lower 36 times out of 66, close to a coin flip. What sets it apart is how much it loses when it does. The declines have run deeper than in any other month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-midterm-years-have-been-the-roughest-of-the-four\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Midterm Years Have Been the Roughest of the Four<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now let\u2019s layer the election calendar on top.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Going back to 1928, the second year of the presidential term has been the weakest of the four by a wide margin. Midterm years have averaged a 3.3% price return with a median of just 0.6%. Only slightly more than half of those years have finished higher. The third year of a term has averaged 14.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The volatility gap is wider still. Since 1960, the average largest drawdown inside a midterm year has been 19.4%. In all other years, it\u2019s been 12.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/08\/COMM-stock-rise-historically-midterms-08142026.png\" alt=\"Stocks Have Historically Rallied After the Midterm Elections\" class=\"wp-image-27154 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The typical midterm year spends the whole year underwater, bottoms out about a month before Election Day roughly 6% below where it started, then climbs steadily from there. Obviously&nbsp;<em>this<\/em>&nbsp;year is not following this playbook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since 1962, every one of the 16 midterm cycles saw a decline between mid-August and Election Day. Not most of them. All of them. The average drawdown was 8.1%, and 10 of the 16 put in their low in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I\u2019m not predicting a selloff this year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, remember. I\u2019m just saying that if we get one this fall, it\u2019ll be the most ordinary thing in the world\u2014a non-event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-this-year-has-real-catalysts-not-just-a-bad-calendar\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>This Year Has Real Catalysts, Not Just a Bad Calendar<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seasonality alone doesn\u2019t move markets necessarily. What makes the pattern worth respecting this year is that there are genuine sources of uncertainty stacked into the next few weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s start with the Federal Reserve. July\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.4% year-over-year, down from 3.5% in June, and&nbsp;<em>core<\/em>&nbsp;CPI cooled to 2.5%. That might sound like relief, but inflation has now run above the Fed\u2019s 2% target for more than five years, and traders are still pricing in a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/traders-stick-narrow-bets-september-fed-hold-after-inflation-data-2026-08-12\/\">38% chance of a rate hike<\/a>&nbsp;at the September meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The inflation picture is not settled either. S&amp;P Global\u2019s July&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pmi.spglobal.com\/Public\/Home\/PressRelease\/b7c4bbe33baf452bb7aeb58021ccfa14\">services survey<\/a>&nbsp;showed the strongest business activity in nine months, but it also showed input costs rising at the fastest pace since May 2025 and the sharpest increase in prices charged for services in 14 months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Then there\u2019s Congress. Republicans hold 220 House seats to the Democrats\u2019 215, the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/graystone.morganstanley.com\/graystone-consulting-charleston-wv\/documents\/field\/g\/gr\/graystone-consulting---charleston--wv\/US_Policy_Pulse_The_Narrowest_of_Margins_2026_Midterm_Election_Preview.pdf\">thinnest margin of control since 1930.<\/a>&nbsp;Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to take the chamber. Morgan Stanley\u2019s base case has the GOP holding the Senate while facing real risk in the House. Whatever your politics, that\u2019s a close contest, and markets aren\u2019t known for pricing close contests calmly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-what-happens-after-the-votes-are-counted\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Happens After the Votes Are Counted<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the chart below, you can see that there\u2019s some good news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/app\/uploads\/2026\/08\/COMM-stock-have-risen-every-year-08142026.png\" alt=\"Stock Have Risen in the Year After Every Midterm Election Since 1962\" class=\"wp-image-27153 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the 12 months following&nbsp;<em>every<\/em>&nbsp;midterm election since 1962, the S&amp;P 500 has been higher. Sixteen elections, 16 gains at 14.2% on average. The narrowest was 1986 at just 1.1%, and that 12-month window contained the October 1987 crash. It&nbsp;<em>still<\/em>&nbsp;finished in the black.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sixteen observations is admittedly a small sample size, and the stock market has risen over any randomly chosen 12-month stretch about 70% of the time since 1960. A good portion of that record is simply the market doing what it usually does. The midterm effect amplifies a tailwind that already exists rather than creating one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-why-it-comes-back-to-policies\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Why It Comes Back to Policies<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019re of a certain age, you know that a divided government has been the norm in this country for most of the past 50 years. Those were not bad years for investors. Presidents Reagan and Clinton both governed with an opposition Congress, and both presided over enormous expansions. Analysts at Commerzbank found the S&amp;P 500 has&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.commerzbank.de\/group\/newsroom\/publications\/260731-wif-usmidtermelections.html\">climbed about 9% a year on average<\/a>&nbsp;under divided government since 1969, against roughly 5% under unified control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Capital doesn\u2019t care about party labels. It responds to tax treatment, to regulatory burden, to whether contracts get enforced and property stays protected. And those things aren\u2019t going to flip overnight because of one election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-earnings-are-stellar-small-businesses-are-hiring\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Earnings Are Stellar, Small Businesses Are Hiring<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let\u2019s look at how U.S. businesses are faring.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to FactSet, second-quarter earnings have been&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/insight.factset.com\/sp-500-earnings-season-update-august-7-2026\">nothing short of excellent.<\/a>&nbsp;With 88% of S&amp;P 500 companies reported, 86% beat their earnings estimates, representing the highest share since the second quarter of 2021 and well above the five-year average of 78%. All 11 sectors are growing revenue. Strip out Alphabet and Amazon\u2014which reported massive Q2 income surges\u2014and companies&nbsp;<em>still<\/em>&nbsp;beat by 10.9%, comfortably above normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Small businesses, meanwhile, are voting with their checkbooks. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nfib.com\/news\/press-release\/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-continues-to-rise-11\/\">NFIB Optimism Index<\/a>&nbsp;rose 2.4 points in July to 99.8, above its 52-year average. A net 20% of owners plan to add jobs over the next three months, the highest since October 2022, and a quarter plan capital outlays in the next six months, the most since December 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-keep-your-head\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Keep Your Head<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Warren Buffett, in one of his&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.berkshirehathaway.com\/letters\/2017ltr.pdf\">famous letters to shareholders,<\/a>&nbsp;warned shareholders that \u201can unsettled mind will not make good decisions.\u201d I\u2019ve watched that lesson play out for decades now. September may test your patience, and in a midterm year, it tests it even harder. But the votes get counted, the uncertainty clears\u2026 and businesses go back to work making money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stay invested. Stay diversified. And try not to let the noise between now and November 3 make your decisions for you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.usfunds.com\/resource\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\/\">Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I\u2019ve said it before, and I\u2019ll say it again: it\u2019s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change. I bring this up because we\u2019re a little under 80 days from another [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":216918,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[224],"class_list":["post-216917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-us-global-investors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/216917\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I\u2019ve said it before, and I\u2019ll say it again: it\u2019s not the political party that matters, but the policies. Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change. I bring this up because we\u2019re a little under 80 days from another [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-21T11:33:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/election-voting-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Frank Holmes\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Frank Holmes\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Frank Holmes\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/76a97f31492e588de01f76c9f6b1df38\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-08-20T15:00:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-08-21T11:33:24+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 1125,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/08\\\/election-voting-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/why-investors-should-stay-bullish-heading-into-the-midterm-elections\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Why Investors Should Stay Bullish Heading into the Midterm Elections - 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Investors, I believe, are better served when they focus not on the partisan noise and headlines but the policies that bring about change. 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