{"id":216633,"date":"2026-08-07T09:47:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T09:47:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=216633"},"modified":"2026-08-07T12:50:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T12:50:24","slug":"us-nonfarm-payrolls-yeses-at-50k-and-100k-were-priced-at-0-74-0-27-aug-6-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/us-nonfarm-payrolls-yeses-at-50k-and-100k-were-priced-at-0-74-0-27-aug-6-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"US Nonfarm Payrolls \u201cYeses\u201d at 50k and 100k Were Priced at $0.74, $0.27: Aug. 6, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Thursday, the end-of-the-business week nonfarm payrolls report for the US was expected to reflect an acceleration after three consecutive months of slower hiring. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market anticipated around 75k additions as the \u201cYes\u201d contracts with thresholds of 50k and 100k were going for $0.74 and $0.27. This indicator is volatile and carries an elevated deviation rate, however, and had potential to surprise, which is why the associated contracts signaled a wide range of potential outcomes. Indeed, over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 150k, 90k, 30k and 10k were priced $0.16, $0.33, $0.84 and $0.90. The monthly Reuters poll of 68 forecasters signaled a similar backdrop, as the median estimate was 80k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 10k and 140k. My estimate as of Thursday was well below consensus at 40k, as I believed labor supply constraints would continue to weigh on the headline result for the rest of the year and would generally favor the \u201cNos\u201d here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"417\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3-1100x417.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract line chart - US Payroll Employment \" class=\"wp-image-216634 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3-1100x417.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3-700x265.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3-768x291.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-3.png 1507w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/417;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Unemployment Expected Steady at 4.2%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The US unemployment rate as of Thursday was expected to remain steady as slower job growth has been coinciding with weaker participation that serves to neutralize the indicator. Of the 67 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the median estimate as of Thursday anticipated an unchanged 4.2% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.1% and 4.3%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Market was in close alignment, meanwhile, as participants priced the \u201cYeses\u201d at 4%, 4.2% and 4.4% at $0.92, $0.49 and $0.04.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-1100x414.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract line chart - US Unemployment Rate \" class=\"wp-image-216635 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-1100x414.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-1536x578.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-4-2048x771.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Canada Unemployment \u201cNo\u201d at 6.5%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Canadian Jobs Report was also scheduled for Friday. In my view, participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Thursday underestimated the potential for a slight decline. The consensus estimate anticipated a steady number of 6.5%, but a modest decrease to 6.4% was certainly possible because this indicator carries an elevated deviation rate and can surprise significantly in either direction. Despite the 6.4% level not being reached since July 2024, the \u201cNo\u201d contract at that threshold was going for just $0.05 on Thursday. This price was undervalued in my opinion because a meager drop in the gauge to 6.4% or below would return $1.00 back to investors per contract; simply too cheap. Furthermore, of the 15 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum projection was 6.4%, indicating that other economists, like me, see a path to this lighter figure. Over, meanwhile, the \u201cNos\u201d at 6.6% and 6.8% were at $0.93 and $0.96 on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"413\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-1100x413.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract line chart - Canada Unemployment Rate \" class=\"wp-image-216636 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-1100x413.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-700x263.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-768x289.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-1536x577.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-5-2048x770.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/413;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>August 6, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx here<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Thursday, the end-of-the-business week nonfarm payrolls report for the US was expected to reflect an acceleration after three consecutive months of slower hiring.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":216637,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-216633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.2) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US Nonfarm Payrolls \u201cYeses\u201d at 50k and 100k Were Priced at $0.74, $0.27: 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