{"id":216509,"date":"2026-08-05T09:16:32","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T09:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=216509"},"modified":"2026-08-05T16:06:53","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T16:06:53","slug":"after-3-straight-weeks-under-210k-consider-the-no-contract-at-0-66-for-this-thursday-aug-4-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/after-3-straight-weeks-under-210k-consider-the-no-contract-at-0-66-for-this-thursday-aug-4-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"After 3 Straight Weeks Under 210K, Consider the \u201cNo\u201d Contract at $0.66 for This Thursday: Aug. 4, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US initial unemployment claims have been below 210k for three consecutive weeks as labor conditions continue to show impressive stability. On Tuesday, forecasters expected that this Thursday\u2019s headline would mark the fourth straight week below the 210k level, as none of the 33 individuals in a Reuters poll envisioned a number above that threshold. Indeed, the median estimate was 202k amidst minimum and maximum projections of 192k and 210k. Also on Tuesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market<\/a> priced the 210k \u201cNo\u201d contract at what I consider to be an undervalued $0.66, since it should cost $0.83, in my opinion. The contract would deliver $1.00 back to investors on any result beneath 211k. Under, the \u201cNos\u201d at 200k and 190k were priced at $0.32 and $0.10.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Prediction<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 4, 2026.<\/a><\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em>here<\/a>. <\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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