{"id":216451,"date":"2026-08-03T08:23:25","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T08:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=216451"},"modified":"2026-08-03T12:30:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T12:30:25","slug":"fed-hike-at-sept-meeting-contract-priced-at-0-56-july-31-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/fed-hike-at-sept-meeting-contract-priced-at-0-56-july-31-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Hike at Sept. Meeting Contract Priced at $0.56: July 31, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The severe selling pressure hitting both Treasury bonds and the US dollar following last Wednesday\u2019s Federal Reserve bank pause may worsen in future weeks considering that the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on July 31 placed only a 56% chance that policymakers will hike in September. Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated an unwavering commitment to quell price pressures but hasn\u2019t shifted policy in the two opportunities he\u2019s had so far. His messaging has certainly tightened financial conditions; however, the fixed-income complex is now confused regarding whether the central bank has the resolve necessary to attempt the difficult and risky task of containing cost forces without slowing the economy. Indeed, economists thought the chief was the most hawkish of the voting members in Warsh\u2019s early days at the helm, only to see that he&#8217;s more towards the middle as at least three officials, dissenters Kashkari, Logan, Hammack, are out hawking him. I believe the recent credibility hit is temporary and will be reversed at the next decision and because of that, I think the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/791099758\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX&amp;conid_yes=876134326\">\u201cYes\u201d<\/a> tied to a 25-basis point increase is potentially undervalued and should be closer to $0.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract line chart - Fed Decision.\" class=\"wp-image-216452 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-1536x579.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/08\/image-2048x772.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 31, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The severe selling pressure hitting both Treasury bonds and the US dollar following last Wednesday\u2019s Federal Reserve bank pause may worsen in future weeks considering that the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on July 31 placed only a 56% chance that policymakers will hike in September.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":216453,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-216451","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Hike at Sept. 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