{"id":216420,"date":"2026-07-31T10:45:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T14:45:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/why-market-volatility-may-be-part-of-the-bull-case\/"},"modified":"2026-08-03T13:19:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T13:19:22","slug":"why-market-volatility-may-be-part-of-the-bull-case","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/why-market-volatility-may-be-part-of-the-bull-case\/","title":{"rendered":"Why market volatility may be part of the bull case"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-key-takeaways\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Secular bull markets don\u2019t typically move in a straight line. Periods of doubt, disappointment, and drawdowns can reset and extend the cycle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>AI skepticism is understandable, but rising anxiety doesn\u2019t necessarily mean the investment thesis has deteriorated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The structural bull market has remained intact, supported by an investment theme likely still in its early innings and a resilient economy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Secular bull markets don\u2019t move in a straight line. In fact, some of the most powerful advances in market history have included periods of doubt, disappointment, and drawdowns that ultimately served to reset and extend the cycle. The recent experience of the so-called Magnificent 7 is a good example.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Since the start of 2024, the group has delivered extraordinary returns while enduring several significant setbacks along the way.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;There was the selloff surrounding Liberation Day, the market reaction to conflict in the Middle East, and the more recent momentum-driven pullback fueled by concerns over the return on massive artificial intelligence (AI) investments. Yet despite these episodes of volatility, the pattern remained remarkably consistent. The highs continued to get higher, and the lows continued to get higher. That\u2019s not only for the Magnificent 7 stocks but for the S&amp;P 500 as well.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;That\u2019s what a bull market has often looked like.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-insight-from-past-tech-cycles\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Insight from past tech cycles<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most transformative technological cycles eventually generated new reasons for skepticism. Early enthusiasm gave way to questions about valuation, profitability, and whether expectations had run too far ahead of reality. AI is proving no different. Last week, Alphabet reported strong quarterly results highlighted by healthy cloud growth, resilient search demand, and robust advertising revenues on YouTube.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Under normal circumstances, those results might have been enough to drive the stock meaningfully higher. Instead, many investors remained focused on capital spending and the timeline for realizing returns on those investments. That skepticism is understandable. But rising anxiety doesn\u2019t necessarily mean the investment thesis has deteriorated. Often, it reflects a market attempting to reconcile long-term opportunity with short-term expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The bears continued to warn about speculative excesses, overvalued markets, persistent inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. Those concerns deserve consideration. However, the broader market data has painted a more balanced picture. Consider that the S&amp;P 500 price\/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio, which measures valuation relative to expected earnings growth, currently sits near 1.27x compared to a 20-year average of 1.78x.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#5\">5<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Meanwhile, the index has traded roughly 6.1% above its 200-day moving average.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#6\">6<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Over the past two decades, the average premium has been approximately 5.1%.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;In other words, valuations and market positioning appeared far less stretched than many headlines suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-some-challenges\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Some challenges<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Of course, the macro backdrop presents challenges. The expanding conflict in the Middle East, higher energy prices,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;and rising bond yields<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;are developments investors would prefer not to see. So, in the near term, markets may need to adjust to this reality. Yet several important considerations remain. First, the share of disposable personal income spent on gasoline by US consumers remained low by historical standards.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#10\">10<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;As we observed earlier this year, higher fuel prices can slow economic activity,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#11\">11<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;but that\u2019s very different from causing an economic collapse. Second, financial markets have already absorbed a meaningful repricing of monetary policy expectations.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#12\">12<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;Investors moved from anticipating multiple rate cuts to contemplating the possibility of rate hikes. Yet credit markets remained orderly throughout the adjustment.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#13\">13<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;My own view remains that the Federal Reserve is likely on hold. Third, inflation expectations over the next five years remained near 2.3%<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html#14\">14<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;a level that should be consistent with price stability. Finally, geopolitical developments can shift rapidly. A ceasefire can emerge just as quickly as it disappears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-structural-bull-market\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Structural bull market<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the end, this looks less like a structural shift in markets and more like a market grappling with higher expectations for the AI opportunity alongside rising macroeconomic anxiety. Periodic corrections and investor skepticism aren\u2019t signs that the secular story is broken. They are often part of the process. The structural bull market remained intact, in my view, supported by an investment theme that\u2019s likely still in its early innings and an economy that continued to demonstrate resilience despite a growing list of concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-what-to-watch-this-week\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">What to watch this week<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Date<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Region<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/th><th class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\"><strong>Why it matters<\/strong><\/th><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 27<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Durable goods orders (June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Read on business investment and manufacturing demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">M3 money supply and private lending (June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Tracks credit growth and liquidity conditions across the eurozone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 28<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (July)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gauge of household sentiment and potential consumer spending momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 29<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Federal Reserve interest rate decision<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Key signal for the path of US monetary policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 30<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2 advance)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Broad measure of US economic growth<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (June)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Federal Reserve\u2019s preferred inflation gauge<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">UK<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Bank of England interest rate decision<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Important signal for UK monetary policy and sterling assets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">GDP (Q2 flash)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Timely read on eurozone growth momentum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Japan<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) (July)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Early read on Japanese inflation trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">July 31<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">China<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Official manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Manager\u2019s Indexes (PMIs) (July)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Early read on activity in the world\u2019s second-largest economy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Japan<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Bank of Japan interest rate decision<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Key signal for Japan\u2019s policy path and yen markets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Eurozone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Consumer Price Index (CPI) (July flash)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Important inflation read for the European Central Bank (ECB)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">US<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Employment Cost Index (Q2)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-left\" data-align=\"left\">Measure of wage and benefit pressures that can affect inflation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted July 27, 2026 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/volatility-bull-market-ai-tech.html?utm_campaign=thirdparty&amp;utm_source=ibrokers&amp;utm_medium=referralference\">Why market volatility may be part of the bull case<\/a> by Invesco US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Footnotes<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Magnificent 7 include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026. The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index has returned 101.37% since the beginning of 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026. The S&amp;P 500 Index returned 230.79% since April 1, 2020.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: CNBC, \u201cAlphabet earnings takeaways: Q2 revenue beats, GOOGL stock sinks on 2026 capex hike,\u201d July 22, 2026.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the price-to-earnings ratio and expected future earnings growth of the S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the S&amp;P 500 Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate Crude Sweet Oil.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the 10-year US Treasury.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, June 2026Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, May 2026, based on US Personal Outlays.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on fed funds implied rates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on the option-adjusted spread of the Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Source: Bloomberg, L.P., July 23, 2026, based on 5-year US Treasury inflation breakeven. A breakeven inflation rate is a market-derived estimate of future inflation, calculated by comparing the yield on a standard government bond (nominal) to the yield on a Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) of the same maturity.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Important information<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">NA5781454<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Image:&nbsp;Halfpoint Images \/ Getty<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investments cannot be made directly in an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy or product for a particular investor. Investors should consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Artificial intelligence (AI) technology companies are sensitive to specific risks such as small markets, business cycle changes, economic growth, technological progress, obsolescence, and regulation. These companies may have limited products, markets, resources, or personnel, making their securities more volatile, especially for smaller start-ups. Rapid technological changes can adversely affect their results. AI companies often rely on patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets to protect their technology, but there&#8217;s no guarantee these protections will be sufficient. Significant research and development (R&amp;D) spending doesn\u2019t ensure product or service success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index is an equal-dollar-weighted benchmark of the Magnificent 7 companies: Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Alphabet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index measures the investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It includes US dollar-denominated securities publicly issued by US and non-US industrial, utility, and financial issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A bull market is an environment in which stock prices are rising or are expected to rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Conference Board\u2019s Consumer Confidence Index\u00ae is published monthly, based on a survey of US consumers\u2019 buying attitudes and buying intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in consumer prices and is a commonly cited measure of inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earnings per share (EPS) refers to a company\u2019s total earnings divided by the number of outstanding shares.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fed funds implied rate is the difference between the spot rate and the futures rate, which is an interest rate that can be calculated for any security with a futures contract.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Employment Cost Index details changes in US businesses\u2019 cost of labor. It is prepared quarterly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. An investment cannot be made into an index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gross domestic product (GDP) is a broad indicator of a region\u2019s economic activity, measuring the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced in that region over a specified time period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Monetary easing refers to the lowering of interest rates and deposit ratios by central banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In general, stock values fluctuate, sometimes widely, in response to activities specific to the company as well as general market, economic, and political conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation is the rate at which the general price level for goods and services is increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Investments focused on a particular industry or sector are subject to greater risk and can be more impacted by market volatility than more diversified investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many products and services offered in technology-related industries are subject to rapid obsolescence, which may lower the value of the issuers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Option-adjusted spread (OAS) is the yield spread that must be added to a benchmark yield curve to discount a security\u2019s payments to match its market price, using a dynamic pricing model that accounts for embedded options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The price\/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio is a valuation metric that considers a company\u2019s price-to-earnings ratio relative to its expected earnings growth rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The price-to-earnings (P\/E) ratio measures a stock\u2019s valuation by dividing its share price by its earnings per share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Purchasing Managers\u2019 Indexes (PMI) are based on monthly surveys of companies worldwide and gauge business conditions within the manufacturing and services sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The S&amp;P 500<sup>\u00ae<\/sup>&nbsp;Index is an unmanaged index considered representative of the US stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tightening monetary policy includes actions by a central bank to curb inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) are US Treasury securities that are indexed to inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a type of light, sweet crude oil that comes from the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The opinions referenced above are those of the author as of July 24, 2026. These comments should not be construed as recommendations, but as an illustration of broader themes. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. They involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions; there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Secular bull markets don\u2019t typically move in a straight line. Periods of doubt, disappointment, and drawdowns can reset and extend the cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":177,"featured_media":8588,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[427],"class_list":["post-216420","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-invesco-us"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Why market volatility may be part of the bull case<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Secular bull markets don\u2019t typically move in a straight line. 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