{"id":216230,"date":"2026-07-28T08:29:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-28T08:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=216230"},"modified":"2026-07-28T09:44:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-28T09:44:22","slug":"hike-at-this-weeks-fomc-going-for-0-19-july-27-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/hike-at-this-weeks-fomc-going-for-0-19-july-27-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Hike at This Week\u2019s FOMC Going For $0.19: July 27, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated a hawkish view on inflation since being appointed to the helm of the central bank, but on Monday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants don\u2019t think he would hike this week in an effort to quell price pressures. Odds of a pause were additionally helped in the past few days by lower oil prices stemming from US and Iran pausing hostilities for three consecutive nights as they try talks. Meanwhile, the disinflation trend is still intact even as fuel charges have rebounded from the middle of the month. Indeed, May\u2019s Consumer Price Index peak of 4.2% was followed by June\u2019s 3.5%, and my estimate of July is at 3.3%, pointing to a gauge that will once again carry a 2-handle by year-end if crude can remain below $70 per barrel, where it was in the beginning of July. Heading into Wednesday&#8217;s decision, a hold is costing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/791099758\/product-details\/contracts?exchange=FORECASTX\">$0.80<\/a>, while a 25-basis point increase is going for $0.19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction market contract, Ded Decision line chart.\" class=\"wp-image-216231 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-35.png 1337w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 27, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has communicated a hawkish view on inflation since being appointed to the helm of the central bank, but on Monday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants don\u2019t think he would hike this week in an effort to quell price pressures. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":216232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-216230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - 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