{"id":215324,"date":"2026-07-02T09:56:02","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T09:56:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=215324"},"modified":"2026-07-08T14:07:43","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T14:07:43","slug":"nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Was At $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This week\u2019s US Jobs Friday was moved Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday and its associated extended weekend. On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants anticipated a June number near 111.7k, as that threshold carried \u201cYes\u201d pricing of $0.50, consistent with a coinflip. The odds were essentially in-line with the economist consensus estimate of 110k, with projections on Wednesday that ranged from 25k to 200k, according to a Reuters poll of 70 forecasters. When analyzing probabilities from an over and under framework, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 150k, 50k and 0 were priced at $0.30, $0.81 and $0.94, indicating an elevated likelihood of a result poised to decelerate from May\u2019s 172k; however, a statistic above 100k would signal an ongoing reacceleration.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"415\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1-1100x415.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract - US Payroll Employment, Line chart \" class=\"wp-image-215325 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1-1100x415.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1-700x264.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1-300x113.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1-768x290.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1.png 1163w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/415;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Unemployment Was Expected To Steady at 4.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Thursday\u2019s US unemployment rate was expected to remain steady at 4.3%, as the \u201cYes\u201d at 4.2% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 4.3% were going for $0.69 and $0.68. Over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 4.4%, 4.1% and 4% were priced at $0.07, $0.90 and $0.97, indicating a narrow range of potential outcomes. The limited set of values was also apparent in the Reuters poll of 68 forecasters, which carried a median estimate of 4.3% amidst minimum and maximum projections of 4.2% and 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"421\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2-1100x421.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract -  US Unemployment Rate, Line chart\" class=\"wp-image-215326 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2-1100x421.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2-700x268.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2-768x294.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2.png 1160w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/421;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Claims $0.76 \u201cYes\u201d at 210K Looked Attractive<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Also on Wednesday, the $0.76 \u201cYes\u201d at 210k looked attractive to me as it related to Thursday\u2019s initial unemployment claims, because this indicator has tended to feature summer increases in recent years and the past seven prints haven\u2019t been below that threshold. Additionally, not one of the 37 forecasters polled by Reuters expected a figure that low with projections having ranged from 215k to 230k amidst a median estimate of 220k. Over and under, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 230k, 220k and 200k were going for $0.10, $0.34 and $0.94 on Wednesday.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"419\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6-1100x419.png\" alt=\"Prediction Market Contract - Initial Jobless Claims, line chart.\" class=\"wp-image-215327 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6-1100x419.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6-700x267.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6-768x293.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-6.png 1173w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/419;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>July 1, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week\u2019s US Jobs Friday was moved Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday and its associated extended weekend. On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants anticipated a June number near 111.7k, as that threshold carried \u201cYes\u201d pricing of $0.50, consistent with a coinflip. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":215328,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[145,3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-215324","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ibkr-market-insights","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Was At $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/215324\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Was At $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"This week\u2019s US Jobs Friday was moved Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday and its associated extended weekend. On Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market participants anticipated a June number near 111.7k, as that threshold carried \u201cYes\u201d pricing of $0.50, consistent with a coinflip.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-07-02T09:56:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-08T14:07:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/payroll.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Was At $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-07-02T09:56:02+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-07-08T14:07:43+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 445,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/07\\\/payroll.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"prediction markets\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"IBKR Prediction Markets\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/nonfarm-payrolls-111-7k-yes-was-at-0-50-heading-into-jobs-thursday-july-1-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Nonfarm Payrolls 111.7k \u201cYes\u201d Was At $0.50 Heading into Jobs Thursday: July 1, 2026 - 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