{"id":215249,"date":"2026-07-01T10:23:13","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T10:23:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=215249"},"modified":"2026-07-08T14:11:42","modified_gmt":"2026-07-08T14:11:42","slug":"euro-cpi-was-expected-to-have-peaked-in-may-at-3-2-as-3-yes-was-priced-at-just-0-24-june-30-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/euro-cpi-was-expected-to-have-peaked-in-may-at-3-2-as-3-yes-was-priced-at-just-0-24-june-30-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro CPI Was Expected To Have Peaked in May at 3.2% as 3% \u201cYes\u201d Was Priced At Just $0.24: June 30, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There was strong anticipation on Tuesday that global inflation rates peaked in May, when the impact of the crude oil spike driven from the US-Iran war lifted annualized measures significantly around the world. Indeed, the following day\u2019s release of the eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to reflect just that, as last month\u2019s figure of 3.2% was expected to retreat to 3% for June. Indeed, a Reuters poll of 42 forecasters carried a median of 3%, amidst minimum and maximum entries of 2.8% and 3.2% as of Tuesday. The Interactive Brokers prediction market foresaw a steeper drop, meanwhile, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.6%, 3% and 3.4% were priced at $0.90, $0.24 and $0.07, signaling a central projection of 2.9%. As of Tuesday, I believed the undervalued trade was a \u201cYes\/No\u201d combination at 2.6% and 3.4%, because the path to a number that low, or that high, was extremely narrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"419\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1100x419.png\" alt=\"Predictive market contract - Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, Line chart.\" class=\"wp-image-215252 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1100x419.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-700x267.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-300x114.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-768x293.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-1536x586.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/07\/image-2048x781.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/419;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>June 30, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There was strong anticipation on Tuesday that global inflation rates peaked in May, when the impact of the crude oil spike driven from the US-Iran war lifted annualized measures significantly around the 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