{"id":214310,"date":"2026-06-24T07:40:24","date_gmt":"2026-06-24T07:40:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=214310"},"modified":"2026-07-09T13:59:58","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T13:59:58","slug":"650k-no-on-new-home-sales-priced-at-0-38-june-23-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/650k-no-on-new-home-sales-priced-at-0-38-june-23-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"650K \u201cNo\u201d On New Home Sales Priced At $0.38: June 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On Tuesday, the subsequent day\u2019s US New Home Sales print covering May was expected to come in at 640k seasonally adjusted annualized units, a modest increase from April\u2019s 622k. The publication was projected to be the fourth result of the year under 650k; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market \u201cNo\u201d contract at that threshold was priced at only $0.38, offering a wide path for a triple-like opportunity for investors who would receive $1.00 if the release had failed to exceed that level. Real estate data have been sluggish lately, as elevated mortgage rates and pricey valuations have limited transaction momentum, and for that reason, on Tuesday, I found this trade to be undervalued. Additionally, I also thought the \u201cNos\u201d at 625k, 700k and 725k were attractive as I believed participants in the interactive Brokers Prediction Market were too optimistic for this specific release; the contracts were priced at $0.13, $0.83 and $0.83. Turning to the monthly Reuters poll of 42 forecasters, the minimum and maximum values were 602k and 675k against the backdrop of a 639k median. Finally, this gauge is notoriously volatile and sports a lofty deviation rate, indicating a high potential for significant surprises on a relative basis.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"437\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49-1100x437.png\" alt=\"Interactive Brokers Predictive Market contract address new home sales in May, line chart.\" class=\"wp-image-214311 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49-1100x437.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49-700x278.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49-300x119.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49-768x305.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-49.png 1419w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/437;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>June 23, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Tuesday, the subsequent day\u2019s US New Home Sales print covering May was expected to come in at 640k seasonally adjusted annualized units, a modest increase from April\u2019s 622k. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":214312,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-214310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - 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