{"id":213747,"date":"2026-06-11T08:31:10","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T08:31:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=213747"},"modified":"2026-06-11T13:10:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T13:10:47","slug":"ecb-was-expected-to-hike-june-10-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ecb-was-expected-to-hike-june-10-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Was Expected To Hike: June 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>On Wednesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market placed a 98% chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) would hike its 2% interest rate to 2.25% on the following day. \u00a0The monetary policy institution is dealing with well-above target inflation of 3.2% and is seeking to quell overall cost pressures driven mainly by the energy shock from the Middle East war. The continent is especially vulnerable to spikes in crude oil prices, since it\u2019s a major importer of the commodity. Japan, meanwhile, is expected to follow suit with an increase of its own next week. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1010\" height=\"655\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-19.png\" alt=\"Predictive market contract line chart - EU Central Bank Rate,\" class=\"wp-image-213748 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-19.png 1010w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-19-700x454.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-19-300x195.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-19-768x498.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1010px) 100vw, 1010px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1010px; aspect-ratio: 1010\/655;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claims Expected Around 220k<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also on Wednesday, Interactive Brokers Prediction Market pointed to initial unemployment claims to be released the following day to come in at around 220k. Such a result would remain in the safe zone from a labor perspective, however, there was a 13% probability of a number coming in ahead of 230k, which could be worrisome depending on where exactly it arrives. Additionally, the \u201cYes\u201d at 210k was priced at $0.83. Similarly, the 33 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey stood at a median of 219k, against the backdrop of a wide range of possible outcomes spanning from 210k to 234k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1023\" height=\"652\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-20.png\" alt=\"Predictive market contract line chart - US Initial Jobless Claims\" class=\"wp-image-213749 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-20.png 1023w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-20-700x446.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-20-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-20-768x489.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1023px) 100vw, 1023px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1023px; aspect-ratio: 1023\/652;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Can The WEI Achieve Another 3-Handle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) has carried a 3-handle for three consecutive weeks, even coming in at a fresh year-to-date high of 3.2% last Thursday. The reacceleration is on and participants in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market on Wednesday saw a 34% chance of a new peak above 3.2%, as they considered the possibility of a figure north of 3.4%, but at a more tempered 8% probability. Below, meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 3%, 2.8% and 2.6% were prices at $0.61, $0.73 and $0.86, respectively, indicating a strong likelihood of a continuation of this robust expansion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1006\" height=\"639\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-23.png\" alt=\"Predictive market contract line chart - Weekly Economic Index\" class=\"wp-image-213750 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-23.png 1006w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-23-700x445.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-23-300x191.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/06\/image-23-768x488.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1006px) 100vw, 1006px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1006px; aspect-ratio: 1006\/639;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>June 10, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On Wednesday, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market placed a 98% chance that the European Central Bank (ECB) would hike its 2% interest rate to 2.25% on the following day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213751,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[152,3164,8,148,7],"tags":[258,3398],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-213747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-europe-middle-east-africa","category-prediction-market","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-ecb","tag-prediction-markets","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - 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