{"id":213669,"date":"2026-06-05T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-05T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/may-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-172000-smashing-estimates-updated\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T14:10:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T14:10:05","slug":"may-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-172000-smashing-estimates-updated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/may-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-surge-172000-smashing-estimates-updated\/","title":{"rendered":"May Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payrolls Surge 172,000, Smashing Estimates (UPDATED)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Editor\u2019s note: <\/strong>This article has been updated to add more details and context.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. labor market strengthened in May as employers added 172,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The monthly increase in total nonfarm payrolls far outpaced the 85,000 mark economists had penciled in, and came in only slightly below April\u2019s upwardly revised 179,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, matching both the expected and previous 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Average hourly earnings 0.3% on the month, matching expectations, and were up 3.4% from a year earlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected jobs data arrives after a series of hot inflation readings and less than two weeks before the Federal Reserve\u2019s June 16-17 meeting, the first chaired by Kevin Warsh<\/strong> since he succeeded Jerome Powell<\/strong> in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

March And April Jobs Hotter Than Initial Estimates<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The May gain came with hefty upward revisions to prior months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The BLS revised March payrolls up by 29,000 to 214,000 and April up by 64,000 to 179,000, leaving the two months a combined 93,000 higher than previously reported.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The back-to-back upgrades reinforce a labor market that has run firmer than the soft prints of early spring suggested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the revised figures, the three-month average comes to about 188,000 jobs, indicating a very strong labor market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In May, hiring was concentrated in a handful of sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Leisure and hospitality led with 70,000 jobs, far above its 14,000 average monthly gain over the prior year, with food services and drinking places alone adding 48,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local government added 55,000, largely outside education. Health care contributed another 35,000, roughly in line with its recent trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Financial activities shed 22,000 jobs and has now lost 107,000 since peaking in May 2025, with the latest declines hitting insurance carriers and commercial banking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Transportation and warehousing was essentially flat, dragged by a 9,000 drop in air transportation that the BLS tied to a business closure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Construction, manufacturing, retail trade and professional and business services saw little change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets Eye Fed Hawkish Path<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Markets read the report as unambiguously hawkish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield jumped roughly 10 basis points to 4.14%, its sharpest move in weeks, as traders reinforced expectations of Fed rate hikes by year end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of at least one rate hike by the December 9 Fed decision have climbed to roughly 58%, eclipsing the combined probability of a hold or a cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US dollar index climbed to 99.25, while gold extended its slide, falling 0.42% to $4,421 as firmer yields and a stronger dollar stripped away the metal\u2019s earlier gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Equity futures drifted lower as of 8:53 a.m. ET. S&P 500 futures fell 0.11% to 7,552.78 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.33% to 30,051.66, with rate-sensitive growth names under the most pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Russell 2000 futures slid 0.23% to 2,912.0, while Dow futures clung to a 0.16% gain at 51,702.16. WTI crude eased 0.65% to $92.60 a barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted June 5, 2026 – May Jobs Report: Nonfarm Payrolls Surge 172,000, Smashing Estimates (UPDATED)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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